IDLIB ON RAZOR’S EDGE

Today is the deadline for Al Qaeda’s Haya’at Tahrir Al Sham and afilliated factions to pull their ighters out of the U-shaped buffer zone established by Russia and Turkey around Syria’s north-western Idlib province. Moscow, which backs the government, and Ankara, which supports the opposition, agreed last month on a 10-15 kilometre wide exclusion zone from which all heavy weapons had to be withdrawn by October 10th and radicals by the 15th.

Their aim was to avert a full-scale Syrian army assault on Idlib, the last bastion of anti-government factions. An offensive could kill hundreds of civilians, held as human shields by these groups, or drive as many as 800,000 from their homes and villages. Nearly half the three million people now living in Idlib and neighbouring areas controlled by opposition factions are refugees from elsewhere.

Although ta hr ira ls ham, its allies, and Turkish-supported allegedly “moderate” factions did withdraw heavy weaponry by the deadline, it is far from certain the radicals will comply with the command to pull out their ighters. Turkish allies paramilitaries will be allowed to remain with their light weapons but required to observe a ceasefire with the Syrian army.

Yesterday radical ighters were reportedly staying put while other insurgents dubbed “rebels” ired mortar shells at Syrian army posts in Hama and Aleppo provinces. Two soldiers were killed in Hama. The oficial daily, al-watan, commented on the violations of the ceasefire agreement and of the deal to remove all heavy weapons from the buffer zone.

Failure by the radicals to depart and breaches of the ceasefire by “rebels” could prompt the Syrian army, which is surrounding Idlib, to commence its offensive unless Turkey and/or Russia take action against violators. Turkey has prepared for such an eventuality by deploying increasing numbers of troops and tanks in and around Idlib.

If Tahrir Al Sham and its allies comply they could lose one-third of the 60 per cent of Idlib they now control as well as key strategic sites overlooking government-held Latakia and Hama provinces. Tahrir Al Sham can muster 10,000 ighters and has fought pitched battles with some factions operating under the Turkish umbrella.

Last week Tahrir Al Sham and its allies the Turkistan Islamic Party and Haras Al Din vowed they would not leave the buffer zone unless a key condition is met. They demanded security guarantees from Turkey for foreign ighters as their home countries reject their repatriation. Turkey is not prepared to offer them refuge in its territory, fearing they could infect Turks with their radical ideologies. Eager to avoid confrontation, Ankara could extend the deadline and try to negotiate with the leaders of these groups.

Russia, however, may not go along with this scenario as the reason Moscow has insisted on irm deadlines due to the failure of Ankara to separate radicals from “moderates” under its wing since agreeing that Idlib should become a ceasefire zone in September 2017.

There is serious concern about ighting between rival factions as well as about the possibility of a Syrian army offensive if the deadline for the radical withdrawal is not met. The World Food Programme has stockpiled stores to feed tens of thousands of civilians if they are driven across the border into Turkey.

Civilians living in Idlib are fed up with war and condemn both sides, the government and the armed groups, for the conlict. Only 10 per cent of Idlib residents are said to be pro-turkish and argue that Ankara is playing its own game in the province and northern Syria.

Damascus considers the buffer zone deal to be “temporary” and insists that Idlib must return to government rule. Russia agrees but Turkey would like to transform the province into a vassal statelet ruled by Ankara’s surrogates. Turkey has made this clear by occupying and establishing dependent regimes in Afrin, conquered early this year, and other areas of northern Syria seized by the Turkish army since 2016.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan justifies the conquest of Syrian territory by claiming Ankara must battle the Kurdish People’s Protection units (YPG) which hold areas along the Syrian border with Turkey. He argues the YPG and its parent organisation, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), are offshoots of Turkey’s dissident Kurdish Workers’ Party which has been ighting Ankara for three decades.

Between January and March this year, Turkey took over the Afrin district of Aleppo province, claiming it was a hostile base of the YPG. More than half the district’s 320,000 mainly Kurdish residents led as Turkish forces advanced into Afrin which lies north of Idlib. Ankara has since left remaining residents to the tender mercies of Turkish-recruited militiamen grouped under the Free Syrian Army banner. Most of the ighters are fundamentalists who persecute Kurds and Arabs who have stayed on or tried to return.

Their homes have been looted, cars stolen, and men and women kidnapped and ransomed for between $15-50,000. The Britain-based opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 40 abductions in recent weeks. This is an organised business as victims are taken to “hostage houses” until payment is made for their release. Detainees are beaten and tortured until their families hand over the cash.

Fighters who opted to go north to Turkish-occupied syrian territory after the fall in April to the Syrian army of Eastern Ghouta, the area east of the capital, have been settled in abandoned Kurdish homes or been encouraged to take over shops and businesses of Kurds who left the district, either temporarily or permanently. Place names have been changed from Arabic or Kurdish into Turkish although the population remains non-turkish.

Checkpoints abound, preventing free movement of people and goods. Fighters manning checkpoints demand bribes to allow people to pass, even from villagers going to their agricultural lands.

There is no recourse for victims. Abu Jihad, a 60-year old resident of Afrin quoted by Nasser al-khatib reporting for Agence France-presse, stated, “Injustice, injustice, injustice and no one is holding them [the Turks] accountable.”