Contemporary leadership and the black- swan- events
Currently, leaders are besieged by various theories on whether they ought to adapt to the unpredictability and improbable logic of black swans.
Against a backdrop of disruptive change during the Covid- 19 onslaught, the unplanned event exposed vulnerabilities in the leadership of families, organisations and countries.
This exposé plummeted self, group and organisations alike to levels that are unprecedented. The devastation caused by Covid- 19 seems to suggest that leadership after all is not a blackswan- event.
Currently, leaders are besieged by various theories on whether they ought to adapt to the unpredictability and improbable logic of black swans. Simply, the status quo does not work anymore as everyday leadership is challenged, disrupted and uncertain.
People who lead like black swans foster alchemist collaborative, engaging and humane tactics that help them to navigate murky waters. Whilst these values are desirable, the black- swan traits are not ordinary because they must contend with unique situations in unusual times with extraordinary solutions.
By any standards, a certain type of leader comes into question in this instance. Consistent with the black- swan concept, these events are infrequent, unexpected, and unpredictable occurrences with dire consequences. If you take the global populace, we all witnessed first- hand the brunt of the unnerving and disruptive nature of the current pandemic.
In Botswana, it is safe to say that most of us have experienced the harsh reality of Covid- 19. The sobering truth is that leadership still is a relational process. Humans fundamentally rely on each other hence the outcry during mandatory lockdowns and prolonged isolation.
Consciously, a natural default for a leader is to be more empathetic and transformative, whilst expected to be effective in dealing with complex and urgent unknowns. However, there is no standard playbook on how to lead because of the aggressive and unpredictable nature of events.
We have seen leaders floundering not because of their inability but because of the nature of black- swan events. Some leaders resorted to being dictatorial, others more collaborative, effective or ineffective, resilient or absent in direct response to the abnormal challenges.
Jacinta Ardern explains black- swan events as a necessary evil, ‘ this stardust won’t settle because none of us should settle’, she posits. Her distinct interpretation set her apart as a leader and saved New Zealand from agony.
Taken together, it seems a more practical approach would be to be both defensive and offensive. To put it in context, the third Covid- 19 wave over the winter required an offensive that was agile, proactive and quick to mitigate against the aggression of the Delta variant.
These events do not need a lacklustre response. They demand a recasting of leadership style, a change in the politics such as in the US and a focused way to address the upset of established systems to build a comprehensive response. Any response should have a built- in shock absorption system that is flexible but resilient to counter the continuous shocks.
On the defensive side, taking advantage of the unique opportunities presented by a disruptive event may include how to douse the ‘ scorching fire’.
Some leaders throw a lot of resources at the problem whilst others are inclined to make changes mid- stream with sometimes disastrous repercussions.
This point to the complexity as a test of the leadership phenomenon that is uncommon. Some of the uncommon actions which make a difference are Dynamic, fluid and nimble behaviours unique to the extenuating situations in decision- making processes.
Leaning on expert advice requires a certain level of agility because decisions are made in a relatively fluid environment. Although this may seem counterintuitive, fluidity can also mean leading from the front in making very far- reaching and difficult decisions.
Business practitioners who merged both the formal and informal channels employed bold and potentially controversial strategies which built in the fluidity.
An imperative is to maintain laser focus and cut out all the noise. Due to the urgency and swiftness of the ‘ unusually usual’ events, building capacity needs a more focused but seamless collaboration in teams.
Professor Mary Uhl- Bien proffers that leaders should be even more engaging to optimise performance. Engagement means being in tune with both the unfolding complexity and the events of the future.
In the case of Botswana, it should not be to squander the opportunity to turbo- charge the economy via knowledge as an emerging but urgent alternative to minerals.
To navigate an otherwise uncertain and fast- moving terrain, most successful leaders use democratised yet resilient technology- led communication channels in real- time.
It seems that leveraging the power of connectivity consistently, effectively and meaningfully allows leaders to maximise the flow of ideas and innovations across the organisational systems. The real challenge is to build a resilient new ecosystem in pursuit of survival.
And lastly, leaders should be courageous, focused and daring. In the earlier example of Jacinta Ardern, evidence that leaders should continually adapt and adjust along the way is an expected part of the adaptive process and one which is imperative in the new order.