Two wars grip world attention
The unravelling geo- strategic environment is extremely precarious. But that is if we are putting it mildly. In more brutal terms, it stands cataclysmic. In eastern Europe, it seems Ukrainians are in that con ict with Russia, just to die. At the present moment, their role is just to count the dead. It is a logical conclusion, which many in the West thought could be changed by hyping Volodymyr Zelensky into a ‘ war- hero.’ Although it is said, the pen is mightier than the sword, in the battle eld, the opposite is true. It is only getting harder for Zelensky. Two years into the war, about a h of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed, and Zelensky can feel during his travels that global interest in the war has slackened. So has the level of international support. Most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. ey have le him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it. e much hyped counter- o ensive has proceeded at a snail pace and with enormous losses, making it ever more difficult for Zelensky to convince partners that victory is around the corner. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that puzzles even his military advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. On a more telling note, the US has not shot down any Russian drones and missiles red at Ukraine, in contrast to how American forces protected Israel from the recent Iranian missile attacks. e US, the UK and France helped Israel repel a massive barrage launched by Iran in retaliation for what Tehran said was an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus earlier this month. In defending its betrayal of Ukraine, the US has described the con icts as di erent in terms of spectrum airspace and threat picture. Moscow perceives the Ukraine con ict as a US- led proxy war on Russia, in which Ukrainians are being used as ‘ cannon fodder’. It has warned that it will consider any military assets directly engaged in hostilities as legitimate targets, regardless of who operates them.
With the outbreak of war in Israel, even keeping the world’s attention on Ukraine has become a major challenge. e Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 le political experts and millions of people around the world wondering whether the attack will lead to a direct war between the two nations. Iran had every reason to retaliate, since the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961 is still in force. Tehran could have responded either by striking the Israeli diplomatic mission on the territory of another country, or by directly attacking Israel. ey took the latter option. At the present moment, the Western media is on steroids to portray the attack as ‘ foiled.’ It is a bold gambit for the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to have resorted to such an escalation. It begs the question, why did Israel do this?
Israel, the most well equipped military in the Middle East, is in a state of total war with a guerilla group, Hamas, that is comparatively ghting with sticks and rocks. e fact that it has not yet achieved its objective of eradicating Hamas and freeing the hostages it took on October 7 last year is extraordinarily embarrassing for the Netanyahu government. Additionally, the nearuni ed international backlash against Israel for its military actions in Gaza has made situation unsustainable, though retreat would also mean political suicide for the Likud Party. It is clear that the Israeli prime minister needs an out. An obvious route would be to provoke the Iranian government into a major escalation, diverting international attention away from Israel’s crimes in Gaza and instead forcing Washington and its allies to rally behind the Jewish state in apparent self- defense. Interestingly, Biden seemed to create space for such a strategy during his latest call with Netanyahu when he also added that the US would defend against “public Iranian threats against Israel and the Israeli people.” e ball is now in Israel’s court. e world awaits with abated breath.