Renewables to make up 81% of new power projects
The newly approved Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will see renewable energy projects make up 81% of all new electricity generation developed or procured by government in the next 20 years, BusinessWeek has established.
Unveiled on Monday, the IRP shows that government plans to develop or procure 1,540MW of new generation between now and 2040. Of that amount, 1,240MW will be from renewable energy projects.
“The IRP meets the country’s growing energy demand at least cost while also reducing the country’s carbon footprint,” said Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security deputy permanent secretary, Nchena Mothebe in a statement.
At present, most of Botswana’s peak demand of 600MW is sourced from coal generation both locally and from Eskom imports.
Major projects in the IRP include a 100MW Coal Bed Methane (CBM) plant due by 2025 and up to 735MW of solar photovoltaic plants due between 2022 and 2027.
The plan also includes up to 140MW of large scale battery storage for which procurement will start in 2029. In his recent State of the Nation Address, President Mokgweetsi Masisi outlined six clean energy projects with the potential to produce 395MW of power in the next seven years. The IRP includes these six projects and also expands on them up to 2040. In the list is 100MW Solar Photovoltaic (PV) project to be split between Selebi-Phikwe and Jwaneng, where the successful bidder is due to be unveiled in the first quarter of next year. The two plants are due to begin
operating in 2022. Tender award for 12 grid-tied solar PV plants with a total of 35MW is due before year-end with commercial operation in 2022. A CBM project is also due to be built by 2025, with two developers leading the race to set up between 10MW and 100MW.
Other projects include a 200MW Concentrated Solar Power plant to be in place by 2026 and 50MW of wind power. The only non-renewable project in the IRP is a 300MW coalfired plant for which procurement is expected to start next year.
Analysts said the IRP would force the country’s energy developers to focus on regional customers or producing coal for export, rather than power generation. “The industry has been waiting for the IRP to be finalised so that they also make their plans,” an analyst said. “For some, it means shifting their plans more regionally and supplying the Southern African Power Pool because only 300MW will be up for procurement by the government.”
One of the country’s most advanced energy developers, Shumba Energy, has coal-fired power projects totalling 900MW under development
in eastern Botswana. In a commentary contained in the group’s annual report released last week, Shumba chairperson, Allan Clegg said while coal-fired power plants utilising ‘Clean Coal Technologies’ would still be required in Africa, renewables had a part to play.
“Renewables will play a part and remain fastest-growing and likely to attain 20% of the Africa market, up from current six percent over the next two decades subject to availability of deployable battery storage to improve capture of generated power for distribution,” he said. Analysts also said government’s IRP and its focus on renewables also put a damper on longheld plans to tap the estimated 212 billion tonnes of coal the country has.
“In the absence of the long-planned export railway lines, the IRP means that coal will sit in the ground longer, unexploited.
“By the time the railways through Namibia or Mozambique are ready, the world may have moved harder against coal, even with clean technology and financiers may be totally unwilling to support development,” the analyst said.