BPF’s fortunes
The Botswana Patriotic Front’s (BPF) aggressive recruitment drive will most certainly benefit a united opposition in the next general election, analysts have opined.
Though the analysts believe this aggressive recruitment drive would work in favour of a united opposition at the polls, some are however skeptical this could be the very thing to poison the well for a stronger bloc.
The political pundits observe that if the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) partners – Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana Congress Party (BCP) in particular – do not rebuild their own structures and take advantage of the insatiable BPF’s appetite that is eating into the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) pie, it would be left exposed, as the BPF could very well turn on the opposition bloc for more.
The move, according to the analysts, could also help revive some collapsed UDC structures, while ensuring BPF dominates the Central District, which might be a guarantee for more constituencies in the north for the party, if not the coalition.
Veteran journalist and political commentator, Thapelo Ndlovu said the BPF is killing two birds with one stone, disarranging BDP, especially in the Central
District, while building bargaining power in opposition politics.
“The UDC affiliates, especially BCP and BNF, who are seemingly complacent now, are likely to be bellowed into action to protect their strong areas as well as build new ones. This could be a positive outcome for the BPF campaign drive as it might rub off the other parties and the gains could be consolidated towards the elections,” Ndlovu said.
“It must also be observed that the BPF recruitment is a classic counter-attack when BDP was strongly encroaching into the opposition side. This has doused what was likely to be an avalanche of goals by BDP, who have now been pushed back to their defensive line. We cannot be certain what could have happened had BPF not unleashed their attack; this is probably the best sales pitch for a coalition or partnership of this kind, that when others are going through a rough patch, the strong or stable one at the time will have to do the work,” he added.
He said there is, however, another possibility, which will depend on the goodwill of the BPF and the confidence of the UDC affiliates.
Ndlovu said if both BPF and UDC cannot manage their interests in areas where they both have a strong presence, a clash might ensue.
“BDP will always be on the lookout to see where to ignite fires, which tend to fan easily. When you look at areas in the Central District, a serious chess game and shoving will take place within the opposition because the people on the ground might want one thing and the national membership, the other.”
University Botswana political science lecturer, Keaoleboga Dipogiso says the BPF seems to be concentrating their energies on constituencies that had been the basis of BDP hegemony, in the Central region.
“Remember, since independence, these constituencies have been dominated by the BDP only, until 2019 when the opposition clinched a few. It is increasingly suggestive of loss of popularity, particularly owing to the presence of former president Ian Khama in the area,” he said.
“Additionally, more cadres of the BDP who believe in his influence find that defecting to the BPF might increase their chances of going into the 2024 polls. The same is the case for some UDC members. Now, this basically means that the BPF’s bargaining chip going into the coalition talks might be more enhanced looking at the paramountcy of the regional influence it has. However, this is detrimental in two folds, the wave of defections suggests that the influence is confined to the Central District, which basically means that it is absent in other regions. The strategy by BPF is detrimental to the UDC and the nation,” Dipogiso argued.
He pointed out that the strategy might further regionalise the power relations in the coalition, where allocations might end up being based on regional influences, including tribal affiliations and the like.
“I say so because there will be no basis of allocating BPF any constituencies in the south,” he said.
His worry is, going into national elections; this might consolidate the mushrooming North-South divide that was suggested by the 2019 elections.
He said election contestation increasingly based on regional cleavages might, in the long run, cultivate a culture of tribalism and administrative prejudices based on regionalism and tribal descent.
He continued: “The premise of my statement is based on the mobilisation strategy that was hatched during the May 4, 2019 meeting and utterances made during that particular meeting.
Subsequently, BPF mobilisation has been centred around the region and Khama.
The 2019 election results are also evidence of the same, even though Khama’s influence was confined to Serowe where his party garnered three constituencies”.
The political scientist also pointed out that, for a party like BNF, which was founded on progressive nationalism, purging tribal groupings and a subtle rejection of bogosi in favour of the national democratic revolution, this might spell doom for this particular principle.
“It may be replaced by a convenient contingency based on the urgency of winning the central region. Further, the chronicle of 2019 might repeat, where you experience a complete vanquish of the opposition in the south,” he said.
Another political analyst, Lesole Machacha said it is their first time to witness such aggressive membership drive when election time is still so far.
“Normally parties start their membership drive a year before the election or during an election year. With this one, it could spell both bad and good for the coalition. It must be understood that most of the members who are defecting from BDP to BPF are the disgruntled ones, who are fighting with everything they have to topple the BDP. These are some of the former MPs and Cabinet ministers who believe that their party does not recognise them.
Failure by the BDP to recognise their former leaders is causing a problem to them because these people do not want positions but recognition that they had served their party well during their time. While UDC has its own internal problems, it might fail to take advantage of the membership drive,” Machacha said.
He said if BPF becomes stronger in some constituencies held by UDC, there is a likelihood for misunderstandings to be there when allocations of constituencies are being done.
Machacha said it is time for UDC to resolve their differences so that they can focus on the membership drive because even some of their members just might join the BPF.
“For example, we understand that some of the UDC members at Palapye do join BPF and that alone might start to cause misunderstanding. People are tired of internal fights. Even though BPF has its own issues regarding its leadership, it is still trying to contain the differences internally,” he said.
He also revealed that if BPF and UDC were to have issues, then the BDP, in the end, would benefit a lot from such disharmony as it would be easy pickings recruiting from all the parties.