Towards a post-Trump Africa-US economic relationship
This week, Joe Biden was sworn in as American President. But what does his ascendance means for Africa, especially with regards to trade policy? The United States of America (USA) is the most powerful influence on the global stage, especially economically. So pronounced is the influence, that many nations, including leading economic powers, had to delay ratification of the Vienna Convention (CISG), until the US had ratified it. The last time I raised a subject as the present, on social media, I was reminded by commentators that we have our own Presidents to look to. I found that rather naïve. Whatever our domestic agenda(s) may be, as Africa, we can do more with America’s attention and that is, by no means a suggestion that the solution to Africa’s challenges can, or will only come aboard a cross Atlantic, Pacific or Mediterranean vessel. Whilst it is, certainly, not Africa’s business who a US President is, that fact certainly matters. The US is a valuable partner in the continent’s journey to economic and political emancipation.
The Nations’ Africa Growth Opportunity Act, is an example of the economic policy assistance Africa needs in order to stand on her own. The Act makes possible, valuable market access based on conditions ranging from human rights and the observance of the rule of law. Apart from market access at preferential levels, the legislation sought to incentivise Africa to move in a more positive political direction. Of course many African presidents would sooner let their people starve, than give up habits they rely on to stay in power, to murder, and to steal. But the effort, is all worthwhile. Nearly 85% of AGOA trade comes from South Africa, with still far greater potential for sub-Saharan countries to tap in. Few subSaharan countries have done much to take advantage of the facility, dissuaded in part by the precondition to reform their stances on human rights, labour and the rule of law. Some, like Botswana, have tried as with the Fenghuye Glass Manufacturing project. Corruption deleted whatever efforts were made and not a piece of glass was produced after nearly a billion Pula vanished, leading to the then President declaring, “re jelwe”. AGOA dreams became a nightmare.
As the US changes Presidents, we are reminded, that its outgoing president famously described African countries as s***hole countries. That US Africa relations were least in his agenda, except, perhaps, to the exception of Egypt with its Middle Eastern strategic role. He had no time for the underdeveloped continent, held back from economic progress by the twin factors of misrule and a legacy of colonial exploitation.
The growth of the sub-Saharan economy means a fairer trade balance with the rest of the world. Pre-covid, trade between Africa and China (2019) was in the neighbourhood of $200 billion whilst trade with the world’s leading economy was in the region of $70 billion. The figures speak to two-way trade and the Chinese approach has been to find new markets to offset its trade war with the US. Africa is one such market., and China has been Africa’s biggest trading partner. Regrettably, in this relationship, the Chinese approach has not been about offering a facility to their economy.
It has been about doling out loans, in exchange of market access. To be fair to China, Europe hasn’t offered a comparable facility either both choosing to trade with Africa, as an unequal partner, willfully blind to its comparatively weak economic position, of which the latter is partly to blame, at least historically. Thus, the US comes across as amongst a few, if any nations that have had a customised policy position to African trade, and one can only hope that the incoming President, would take a greater interest in a context sensitive relationship with Africa. At least, that is what the AU must push for.
True, Africa’s solutions to its own domestic problems lies with Africa. But as it is, Africa’s demons will not be exorcised. Zimbabwe, a potential regional powerhouse remains in the doldrums, as has, virtually delegated the care of its citizens to South Africa, where millions of its citizens now, almost permanently, live.
The security situation in Northern Mozambique is dire. In South Africa, a model of post liberal constitutionalism, the elite and their associates just blew away R500 billion intended to protect a population besieged by a murderous virus. Dictators like Yoweri Museveni, still rule virtually as life presidents, at great expense to human rights. As such, facilities such as AGOA, with so much potential, have yielded little in terms the economy of sub-Saharan Africa, and deserve further reform.
A time may have come for the AU to push for an economic relationship that is not based upon political concessions. The current AGOA approach, has the overall effect of punishing the long-suffering African masses.
Fact: few African leaders simply don’t care about the economy, if they have any clue why they are in office in the first place. Market access should be subject, perhaps only, to the observance of set labour standards. Human rights and rule of law considerations could be pursued as separate diplomatic imperatives. It is not unfathomable that as the sub-Saharan people become more economicaly emancipated, they would be in a better position to achieve political reform internally.
After all, US relations with repressive middle-eastern countries, are based more on strategic imperatives than political or human rights considerations. Sanctions against Zimbabwe, as a country, must, amongst others, be lifted.