Odds stacked against UDC in 2024-Political analyst
FRANCISTOWN: The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) cannot win the 2024 general election under the current constitutional, legal, and political order, University of Botswana political scientist Adam Mfundisi said this week.
He told Mmegi in an interview that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has been emboldened by what transpired in the 2019 election. Mfundisi, lecturer in politics and administrative studies opined that the BDP has learnt how to, “perfect its electoral manipulation and malpractices.”
He faulted the Constitution for promoting electoral fraud, abetting it and making it difficult to challenge the outcomes in the courts.
He also pointed fingers at the current Judiciary order saying, it ”is not suitable to address the electoral disputes. I want to be emphatic and say without contradiction, even the BDP in opposition, would not win elections under the current Constitutional regime.”
The 2024 general election, he says, must be premised on a new Constitutional, legal, and political order for it to be deemed fair, free, and credible.
“The conditions that prevailed in the 2019 general elections were hostile and inhospitable to opposition polity. The Constitution, the legal framework as well as political environment were eschewed towards the retaining of BDP and its government to power,” posited the UB lecturer.
He says the UDC and its leadership pursued every strategy to dethrone the BDP and its regime, but the odds were stacked against opposition forces.
After the formation of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), the BDP factions panicked because of existential threat to the President Mokgweetsi Masisi regime. As allegations have been made by opposition as well as some BDP operatives, a strategic decision was made to win the 2019 elections through hook or crook.
“Overt and covert means were executed to influence the outcomes of the general election. Civil society organisations, some who claim to be champions of democratic ideals and human rights defenders were mum amidst State-sponsored electoral fraud,” said Mfundisi.
He further posited that the UDC was faced with multi-pronged problems and constraints emanating from the 2019 general election. One amongst the many, he said was the protracted electoral petitions which were costly to the party.
To him, politics in Africa was a risky enterprise where politicians on the opposition front risked their lives and those of their families as well as their supporters.
He concurred that political analysts and commentators failed to analyse the political environment prevailing in Botswana to ascertain the possibilities of a peaceful transfer of power. They failed to interrogate the Constitutional, legal, and political environment which favoured the incumbent BDP.
He found it unfair to blame the UDC leadership particularly UDC president Duma Boko and his deputy, Dumelang Saleshando for the performance of the party.
“If you read the statements and allegations of the BDP activists who participated in the electoral fraud and malpractices, you can extrapolate certain patterns which are tell-tale signs of voter rigging. The BDP strategy was to target constituencies South of Dibete,” he said.
He said Boko was targeted for removal because he was the biggest threat to the BDP and its government.
All in all, Gaborone constituencies, said Mfundisi, were targeted for electoral fraud and malpractices.
“The BDP knew that losing Gaborone-based constituencies would have led to its downfall because it is the heart of government. That is why most energy was expended there. Manipulation of voters’ rolls to ensure multiple registrations and voting was executed,” he said. Responding to a questionnaire this week, Mfundisi suggested that political warfare has always been a feature in all coalition formations. Supporters have their own agenda in engaging in vitriolic statements and attacks.
He said the BCP cannot be held accountable for the poor performance of the UDC in the Southern part of the country. The BNF was charged with the management of most constituencies in the Southern part of the country. It must be held accountable for the performance of the alliance in its sphere of influence. There are some arguments that BNF operatives should have counteracted these electoral fraud and malpractices perpetrated in the Southern part. Others posit that the BNF had dysfunctional structures toward the 2019 general election which contributed, somewhat, to the poor performance in the 2019 polls. All in all, coalitions endure ebbs and flows in their political development and performance.
UDC needs to focus on strategic policy issues which can contribute to cohesion within the alliance. Strong and strategic leadership is required to direct the UDC and its partners to political destination. Political warfare is a phenomenon of political alliances and political leaders must manage it effectively. We must also factor in political interference from the BDP to destabilise the UDC and its
Mfundisi’s other take was that the most tangible strategy is to form a single political formation of all UDC and other partners to have common vision, mission, strategy, philosophy, goal, and objective.
All over the world, coalition politics is beset by controversies and political warfare. Mfundisi emphasises that party discipline must be maintained to instill a sense of accountability and responsibility within the organisation.
UDC structures must be formed and functional. Pertinent issues must be debated and resolved at these fora. Election of political leadership must be carried out to usher in public confidence and trust on the leadership. Participative and deliberative democracy is crucial to strengthen the UDC and its coalition partners. Speaking further on Boko and Saleshando he sees no ideological differences between them but emphasizes differences in strategy and tactics.
“Both have different leadership styles. But both share the following: proficiency in public communication, organisational skills, political skills, cognitive skills, and emotional intelligence,” he stated. He also noted that the two complement and supplement each other in better ways to lead the UDC to political office. He added: “The perceived differences are overplayed by their political opponents and their operatives. Some media houses have been mobilised to spread this false narrative of differences between the two for political mileage.”