Balopi’s daunting political task
FRANCISTOWN: Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) secretary-general (SG), Mpho Balopi faces an uphill battle in his bid to retain his seat as SG and assert himself in the party. Balopi, who is also the Minister of Employment, Labour Productivity and Skills Development, is yet to make his candidacy for the position public, but various sources maintain that he will be contesting. Should Balopi contest, he knows that victory will enhance his credentials in the party. On the other hand, a loss will be equal to a calamity. It might mark the start of his downfall in BDP politics, like it has happened with others before (who lost the position of SG) him.
This week, consensus amongst some BDP diehards and political pundits was that the upcoming elections for the position of SG would be a great test for Balopi’s political prowess or credentials.
For the first time, they say Balopi finds himself without the weighty backing of key party figures most notably the sitting president.
President Mokgweetsi Masisi reportedly supports another candidate for the position of SG. It has been speculated that he prefers businessman Lesang Magang. The BDP will soon hold its elective congress following the lifting of the State of Emergency (SoE).
In 2013, at the BDP elective congress in Maun, Balopi had the backing of the then president Ian Khama. Then, Balopi, who had also teamed up with the Samson Guma’s lobby group was deemed to be a political lightweight who could not orchestrate his own political victory.
Guma’s team, which triumphed at the elective meeting, also had Khama’s close confidante, Thapelo Olopeng who was then considered a political novice. Many believe that Balopi and Olopeng won on account of their association with Khama as well as aligning themselves with Guma’s ‘strong’ team. At the 2017 elective congress in Tonota, the general feeling amongst some BDP diehards and political commentators was that Balopi won on account of support or influence from both Khama and his then vice, Masisi. Masisi was then seen to be mobilising a team to lead the party at the 2019 general election. Khama was about to hand the baton to the latter at the time.
At the upcoming BDP congress, if he contests, Balopi will find himself having to beat the perception that as an individual, he has never had to fight it out against the tide or on account of his individual strength to win the party elections.
A win for him will send a statement to his critics that he is a force to reckon with and he does not have to ride on anyone’s back to win central committee elections. The main proposition by some in the BDP is that Masisi will most likely exploit his powers and influence in the party to drum up support for his preferred candidate at the expense of Balopi. For this reason, they say the Gaborone North legislator will have to navigate a tough terrain in a bid to retain his seat.
This is amongst the reasons why they believe the upcoming central committee elections will be one of the biggest tests of his political test. “The man (Balopi) enjoys goodwill in the party. That cannot be denied. Unfortunately, that goodwill is limited. It is not downright support where you can say this man standing alone will do exceptionally well,” said one ruling party insider this week. The insider also says that one factor that makes Balopi very vulnerable is that Masisi has successfully managed to congregate the party around himself. This he says might make it difficult for Balopi to retain his seat as the BDP secretary-general. “For example, if you look at activities on the social media, influential BDP members are preaching the ‘Masisi or nothing agenda’. This suggests that they will strongly rally behind those backed by Masisi at the elective congress something which will disadvantage Balopi.”
Another predominant opinion within the BDP is that in a bid to elevate a candidate of his choice, Masisi might even engage in underhand tactics in a bid to frustrate Balopi. Should this happen, they say it would inevitably make it difficult for Balopi to retain his seat. When Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi expressed her desire to contest for the elections of BDP presidency against Masisi, ahead of the 2019 general election, the latter was accused of frustrating her efforts until she pulled out of the race at the eleventh hour. Venson-Moitoi directly attributed her withdrawal from the race to bullying and ill-treatment by Masisi during her campaign.
Masisi was also accused of ill-treating those who refused to accept him during campaigns for the position of BDP chairperson.
Political analyst, Zibani Maundeni says Balopi can defy the odds and retain his seat as the SG of the party. He, however, says that it will depend on various factors.
“Most notable it will depend on how he structures his campaign and mobilise resources. He is very popular in the party and if he can mobilise enough resources to fund his campaign, he might win,” Maundeni said.
Balopi himself is widely viewed as a well-connected businessman who has the ability to mobilise vast resources for his campaigns.
Maundeni also stated that it is not cast in stone that those who enjoy the backing of the President will stand a chance of winning central committee elections.
“Precedence has been set before. The likes of Mma Seretse (Tebelelo Seretse) lost central committee elections in Kanye although they enjoyed the backing of the then President Khama.”
The former University of Botswana (UB) academic does not think that Masisi might engage in underhand tactics to ensure that his candidate wins.
“From a distance, I do not think that Masisi views Balopi as a threat to his presidency. If at all Balopi was viewed as someone who wants to use his position of SG as a stepping-stone to the presidency that is when I would say Masisi would engage in underhand tactics to ensure that he (Balopi) does not win,” he said.
Balopi did not respond to questions regarding the challenges many believe he would likely face in his campaigns, should he choose to contest for the position of SG. In addition, he did not respond to questions surrounding his victory at the 2013 and 2017 central committee elections.