Seven constituencies that crushed AP, BCP

Seven constituencies are what broke the camel’s back and saw what was once a promising relationship collapse last Friday.

The development led to Alliance for Progressives (AP) deserting cooperation talks with Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and Botswana Labour Party (BLP) to seek an alternate one with Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

The constituencies which left the trio deadlocked for four months are Gaborone Central, Mogoditshane, Tati West, Nata/Gweta, Francistown West, Gaborone North and Lerala/Maunatlala.

The three parties started talks in September 2022 and the intention was to have concluded them within 10 weeks meaning the process should have come to a conclusion in December 2022. The parties started the process for the allocation of constituencies on an agreed criterion. They developed and submitted position papers on allocation criteria or methods. They also developed and submitted constituency wish lists and also agreed on a pre-election coalition that will give Batswana a competent, democratic and accountable alternative. The trio had agreed on criteria for allocating constituencies such as presidential preference, incumbency, footprint, subjective argument and the strength of candidates where they existed.

The presidents of the negotiating parties were allowed to choose the constituencies they wished to contest in during the 2024 General Election. Based on this criterion, two constituencies were set aside for the AP and BLP presidents. BCP president, Dumelang Saleshando, who is an incumbent MP for Maun West, retained his constituency. Each party was automatically allocated the constituencies it won in 2019.

Thus, BCP retained the 11 it had won in 2019 whilst AP retained Francistown South. A total of 14 were allocated two by presidential preference and 12 by incumbency, 43 were available for negotiation. With the footprint criterion, the party that leads the second placed party by at least 20% in 2019 or 2014 general elections was deemed to have the largest footprint in the constituency and would get it by virtue of the footprint. Based on this criterion, the BCP was allocated further 12 constituencies while AP was allocated a further seven. With the subjective argument criterion BLP was given a special consideration because it did not contest the 2019 General Election and therefore, could not make its case based on objective criterion. As a result, BLP was allocated 10 constituencies. The BCP said it never deviated from the agreed principles and decision-making criteria. The party further argued that challenges arose when, before objective criteria could be exhausted, the AP negotiators started demanding constituencies which, based on objective criteria, should have been allocated to the BCP.

The AP on the other side said on the footprint criterion it was startled when the BCP started insisting on using UDC numbers as their own. On footprints and criterion, the following is how the parties performed in the 2019 General Election. The BCP contested under the UDC, a coalition which had two more parties being the Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana People’s Party (BPP).

Mogoditshane

This is a constituency that was won by Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) Tumiso Rakgare with 7,093 votes in the 2019 General Election. Nthusang Dibe of the UDC, which the BCP is part of, came second with 3,410 votes.

Sedirwa Kgoroba of the AP, who won the constituency in the 2014 General Election, came third with 1,042 votes. Now the AP’s argument here is that since the UDC is a tri-party coalition, the latter’s 2019 numbers should have been divided into three to determine BCP’s numbers and footprint.

If the number garnered by the UDC is divided by three, the BCP would edge AP by just 94 votes. Following the delimitation report, Mogoditshane has since been divided into two constituencies namely Mogoditshane East and West.

Gaborone Central

The constituency was won by Tumisang Healy of the BDP with 4,886 votes. UDC candidate and BCP spokesperson, Mpho Pheko, came second with 3,085 votes while former legislator in this constituency Phenyo Butale got 2,106 votes in the third place.

If the same division criterion was to be used then Pheko would get 1,028 votes and in the end Butale would get his way with more votes.

Perhaps, the main argument for the BCP here is that this is a constituency which for a long time was held by Saleshando until Butale made an upset in 2014 and won against all odds. For AP, the contention was borne out of the fact that their secretary-general Butale held it after defecting from the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) to form AP in 2017.

Tati West

Simon Moabi of the BDP was victorious in 2019 with 6,236 votes in this constituency followed by UDC’s Makhani Tshepo with 4,783 votes. Biggie Butale of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) came last with 1,622 votes. AP didn’t have a candidate for this one and it is quite difficult to understand where the contention is.

Nata/Gweta

BDP backbencher, Polson Majaga, retained this one with

4,754 votes while

BPF’s Ishmael

Mokgethi came second with

3,186 votes.

UDC’s Tirelo

Ketlhoilwe got

1,442 votes. Just like Tati-West the contention is unjustified.

Francistown-West

Ignatius Moswaane who was then with the BDP retained the constituency via 4,928 votes followed by Lenyatso Mbaakanyi of the UDC with 3,148 votes. AP’s Moalosi Dira came third with 763 votes and if the ‘divide by three’ criterion is to be used here BCP would still edge AP with 286 votes.

Gaborone North

Mpho Balopi of the BDP won convincingly with 9,566 compared to UDC’s Haskins Nkaigwa with 5,030 votes. AP’s Thatayaone Molefi came third with 1,085 votes. Also if the same criterion was to be used, AP would still be behind BCP with 591 votes.

Lerala/Maunatlala

The BDP’s Setlhabelo Modukanele was victorious in the constituency with 6,166 votes followed by independent candidate and former Member of Parliament for the area Prince Maele with 5,027. UDC’s Ketshogile Kabo came third with 2,435 votes while AP’s candidate Gothusang Phuthego only managed 208 votes slightly behind BMD’s 214 votes.

The criterion would also put AP 603 votes behind the BCP. The BCP and the AP were deadlocked on these seven constituencies for four months. According to the BCP, a series of bilateral engagements followed between the two and AP negotiators suggested an agreement will be reached if BCP gave way in Gaborone Central and Mogoditshane.

“It was initially agreed that the party that gets Gaborone Central will be entitled to three out of seven constituencies. However, upon conceding Gaborone Central, AP changed and demanded four out of seven.

Surprisingly, the AP negotiators shifted the goal posts, demanded all the seven, and started complaining about ‘trust issues” and lack of ‘give and take’,” Pheko recently revealed in a media statement. However according to the AP, a deadlock was declared on seven of eight constituencies between the AP and the BCP, and the deadlock was referred to the convenors for mediation.

“The matter was finally referred to the presidents for them to break the deadlock. When everything else failed, the matter was referred back to the negotiating teams. When they came back after months stand-off, we asked for a holistic approach that would look at both seven and the newly formed constituencies with the view to ensure equitable distribution of constituencies.

We were of the view that we cannot have a situation where one partner, the BCP, has upwards of 26 to 30 constituencies while the AP has just over 10 constituencies,” AP’s secretary-general, Butale, told the media recently. Now that the parties are no longer allies, it is interesting to see what would happen if they meet up to negotiate the same constituencies this time under the UDC.

This is of course, if the AP joins the coalition and the BCP decides to remain in the UDC