BCP undeterred by elections losses
FRANCISTOWN: The Botswana Congress Party (BCP) is undeterred following a disastrous performance in the recent by-elections.
The party has lost most of the by-elections to its parent organisation, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
Despite the party’s underwhelming performance in the low tier polls, its leadership says the results of the general election show that its fan base is still intact despite having been absent on the ballot paper for nine years.
The latest UDC win at the weekend by-election in Mapoka-Nlapkhwane was somehow expected based on the dynamics on the ground. The UDC has dominated all the by-elections since the 2019 General Election.
The UDC, a coalition movement, triumphed with 565 votes while the BCP managed 327 votes and the ruling Botswana Democratic Party UDC garnered 273 votes. The by-elections results should not be solely used as a yardstick to predict that the UDC will have it easy at the 2024 General Election.
The decline of the BCP might not be spectacular but there is evidence on the ground which seems to suggest that some in the parties are slowly losing confidence on the BCP following its latest loss at Mapoka-Nlapkhwane.
On the flipside, there might not be a price for coming second or not winning an election but the BCP has continued to attract fairly good numbers during by-elections.
This should give Dumelang Saleshando (BCP president) and his troops the confidence that they have a base or solid structure to work on leading to 2024. The UDC should also not be deceived by its good run at the by-elections held post 2019. Its impressive performance might prove to be very distractive. It might bring an element of complacency and prevent the party from dealing with pertinent issues affecting the coalition movement.
On another front, the UDC affiliates the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and the Botswana National Front (BNF) currently face internal problems of their own. If the internal fissures are not dealt with timely, they might spill into the UDC and ultimately derail the coalition from adequately preparing for the 2024 General Election.
The UDC performed well at the by-elections held post the 2014 General Election only to falter in the 2019 General Election. There is a school of thought that the UDC was somehow blinded by its good performance during by-elections post the 2014 General Election to the extent that it forgot to focus on the 2019 General Election. This then means that the UDC should do everything in its power to maintain its good momentum until the general election.
Asked about the implications of the BCP’s loss at Mapoka-Nlapkhwane, the party’s spokesperson Professor Mpho Pheko said: “For a party that has not been on the ballot paper for nine years, we are happy with our performance thus far. All the by-elections the BCP contested show that its base is still intact.
We also accept that we invested a lot of effort in building the UDC in 2019. The BCP only resurfaced on the ballot nine years later. The UDC has demonstrated that it is determined to destabilise opposition parties all in the interest of growing the BNF hiding under the UDC. We have seen that the BMD ended up splitting into the AP, said Pheko.
She added that following the split of the BMD, which gave birth to the AP, the BMD members were promised that if they stay with the UDC, they will automatically be allowed to stand in certain wards and constituencies.
“We are seeing members of the BCP being promised that if they betray their mother party, they will also not be challenged through primary elections. We see these deals as dangerous to democracy. The BCP notes that there is a lot that is going on in the nation that requires the party to stand on the side of the people of Botswana to facilitate an authentic, credible and sustainable change of government. Standing on this side and facilitating this type of change of government requires that we contest as many elections and by-elections as possible,” an optimistic Pheko stated.
Only then, our message regarding authentic regime change that is anchored on economic prosperity, democracy and good governance can be made and heard, Pheko noted.
“We also know that the BDP is in a state of collapse and what we must establish as a party is why those who are deserting the BDP choose the UDC despite the serious allegations of the Moti files.
The issue of councillors who are leaving the BCP is an old issue. Many of those who are leaving the BCP for the UDC owe the BCP subscription fees while some of them have neglected their wards. Also, some anticipate tough primary elections. Given the promises by the UDC, we understand how such councillors will find refuge at the UDC,” Pheko explained.
Commenting about the implications of the latest UDC win in the Mapoka-Nlapkhwane by-election, if any, a political analyst at the University of Botswana (UB), Professor Zibani Maundeni, says winning by-elections does not mean anything.
“Winning by-elections is not about governing the country. You can’t use the win of a by-election to gauge how a party will perform in the general election. Of course, it will elicit the emotions of the winner, make them happy and give them the strength that they are a credible party but winning by-elections is not akin to winning the general election,” said Maundeni.
Maundeni was also asked if the UDC win has any implications on its affiliate, the BCP.
The UDC and the BCP are currently embroiled in a political standoff which the BCP says is caused by the lack of good democratic governance principles within the UDC. The UDC denies that claim. Maundeni stated that the loss that the BCP and the BDP suffered might embolden them to work very hard.
“The loss that the BCP suffered to the UDC during the Mapoka-Nlapkhwane by-election will give it strength and motivation to work very hard in order to win future by-elections. The same applies to the BDP,” said Maundeni.
Maundeni was also asked his views regarding the recent trending news involving the leader of the UDC Duma Boko and a South African businessman, Zunaid Moti.
Media reports from South Africa are to the effect that that prior to the 2019 General Election Boko entered into a quid pro quo agreement with Moti in which Moti will fund the UDC campaigns in exchange of stakes in some of Botswana’s lucrative industries such as mining, tourism and beef sectors among others had the UDC won the last general elections.
The Boko and Moti issue has been met with ambivalence on social media platforms. It is clear that people who are pro and against the Boko and Moti deal have taken political sides when discussing it.
The UDC has since rebutted claims that Boko wanted to mortgage Botswana to Moti for political expediency. The UDC says Moti was going to compete fairly with other business people for opportunities in Botswana had the UDC won the 2019 plebiscite.
Said Maundeni about the Boko and Moti issue: “The issue of Boko and Moti was central to the campaigns of President Mokgweetsi Masisi in the build up to the 2019 polls. The AP also used the issue to canvass for votes. To avoid this from happening in the future, a more principled approach shows that there is need for State funding of political parties in Botswana. Any support from outside Botswana is detrimental to the interests of the country because people who provide such support in whatever form will want something in return for their support.”
In a related matter, Maundeni was asked to ventilate the recent political developments in relation to the AP wanting to join the UDC. In the 2019 campaign trail, the AP also lambasted Boko about his relationship with Moti.
Another UB political commentator Adam Mfundisi says the BCP may redeem its pride if it puts more effort on civic and political education.
“Civic and political education are the most important tools to deal with attacks on its integrity. Strengthening of political structures and leadership development will improve its appeal to the hearts and minds of the voters.
Appealing to the youth and marginalised groups is another strategy to enable the besieged BCP. The relationship of the BCP and the UDC has irretrievably broken down and a political divorce is in the public domain. Strategic leadership has been lacking in the UDC. Since the disastrous performance of the UDC in the last polls, the coalition has been dogged by protracted internal conflict,” said Mfundisi.
Mfundisi is also of the view that the narrative that “it’s either the UDC or nothing” seems to be effective as voters continue to align themselves to the UDC.
“Batswana have been indoctrinated to believe that the UDC is the sole alternative to the BDP. The BCP has been vilified by the UDC as a spoiler and enabler to the BDP to perpetually rule the country. The BCP and its political leadership must invigorate their campaigns to shed off these negative narratives. They must respond aggressively to such vitriolic attacks which worked against it in the 2014 General Election,” said Mfundisi.
The UB lecturer in politics and administrative studies says in Botswana, principles and values are not observed by the political elites both in the opposition and government.
“Political conscience is not a determiner of political actions and decisions. Political opportunism and parochial self interests predominate the political landscape. The AP and its leadership are motivated by political survival rather than public interests to join the UDC.
They have calculated the political arithmetic more so in the southern part of the country where the AP is mostly visible and may have chances to win some constituencies. The AP has been degrading since the 2019 polls and currently it has a limited support base except at the top leadership. Its impact and influence in the UDC are limited. It will dance to the tune of the dominant force, the BNF. The same pathologies bedevilling the UDC will affect it,” said Mfundisi.