BPF feud, split will weaken it-Analyst

FRANCISTOWN: The likely split of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has the potential to weaken it, an analyst has said.

Recently, the BPF has been rocked by tensions caused by the control of the party by activists aligned to its president Biggie Butale and others aligned to former president Ian Khama.

Khama has publicly stated that he wants to replace Butale as the president of the BPF. The BPF factions have been embroiled in tit-for-tat brawls over a number of issues.

Those who are aligned to Khama want an elective congress to be held by May 30, 2023 and the immediate lifting of the indefinite suspensions of some National Executive Committee (NEC) members, which demands must be met by May 14.

After the High Court confirmed Butale for the position of the BPF president recently, tensions in the party have escalated drastically.

This has led some political observers and party loyalists to fear that the party is on the brink of collapsing.

Should the BPF give birth to a splinter party led by Khama, fears abound that this would weaken the Butale-led party to a point where it would lose its influence in the Gammangwato region where it holds considerable influence and following.

The following, analysts say, is mostly attributed to Khama- the Bangwato Kgosi - and the legacy that his late father and first president of Sir Seretse Khama bequeathed upon him in the former vast Central District.

The district has been broken up into smaller regions by President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s government allegedly for efficient and easy services to the people.

However, conspiracy theorists are of the view that the district was divided as a political strategy by Masisi in order to weaken the influence of the BPF in the district following the dismal performance of the BDP in its former stronghold after the 2019 General Election.

Party insiders say the prospects of reconciliation between the two BPF factions are bleak following the reinstatement of Butale by the court as the party president.

The BPF joined the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) before the feud between the Butale and Khama factions in a mission to remove the BDP from power.

Now there are fears that should the fight between the Butale and Khama factions continue unsolved and lead to the birth of a breakaway party, its marriage of convenience with the UDC would not bring any significant benefits to the latter.

Others have characterised the BPF as a “political shell company” should that situation unfold. The BPF has in the past said its influence and following exceed the borders of the Bamangwato region.

Those who subscribe to that opinion say should reconciliation overtures between the two warring parties fail, the BPF should ignore Khama at its peril because of the major influence he still wields in the former Bamangwato district which extends to other parts of the country.

Khama, who is the current BPF patron, shocked many about three months before the 2019 polls when he and others formed the BPF but won three parliamentary seats and a number of council seats mostly in the Central District.

A political analyst at the University of Botswana (UB), Adam Mfundisi, says should the allegations that Khama and other senior BPF leaders forming a new party become true, it will be a major development in the Botswana political space.

The BPF has been rocked by fierce political factionalism that has the opportunity to destabilise it, says Mfundisi.

“It has become apparent that there were two factions, one led by Butale and the other by Khama and his supporters including his brother Tshekedi. It was only a matter of time before internal and internecine conflicts and contradictions surfaced in the BPF. The BPF is a product of Khama and his Bangwato tribesmen. Khama is the Godfather of the BPF and therefore the party without Khama is an empty shell devoid of substance and durability. The formation of a new political party supposedly led by Khama ends the political life of the BPF. The performance of the BPF in the 2019 General Election was anchored on Khama’s appeal to the hearts and minds of his tribe, the Bangwato and its environs,” says Mfundisi.

Mfundisi adds: “Khama is still the indomitable king of the Bangwato tribe which controls the whole of the Central District. Moreover, the political mantle of Khama appeals beyond the Serowe constituencies. Bokalaka, Tswapong, Bobirwa and others are within Khama’s sphere of influence. He is the son of Sir Seretse Khama, the first president of Botswana and he is also the former Commander of the Botswana Defence Force (BDF). All these factors imbue him with intensive and extensive influence in Botswana politics. Khama has become a political icon despite relentless attacks from the BDP. His influence has not been diminished by vitriolic propaganda and criminal investigations and his prosecution.”

Asked if Khama will have any impact on how the Serowe West by-election result will pan out, Mfundisi is of the view that the election will show the might of Khama and his supporters in the new political formation.

“Anyone who will have the blessing of Khama will win the election. The BPF will be exposed as debris to be disposed of at will should Khama and others form a new party. Without Khama, the BPF has no base and appeal anywhere in Botswana including where its leader originates,” says Mfundisi.

To him, it will be political suicide for the Butale faction to go against Khama’s will.

“The Butale faction should have attracted Khama to their side even if it would have been impossible because his siblings and staunch supporters are in the other faction opposed to Butale. The new party, if it has the blessings of Khama, will appeal to the hearts and minds of Serowe voters and victory is assured,” Mfundisi posits.

The UB expert says he does not subscribe to the narrative and political propaganda insinuating that Khama is power-hungry.

“Every politician enters the political sphere to assume power. The character of politicians is influenced by the acquisition of power. The temptation of power is seemingly irresistible in politics. Khama has done his part as the fourth President of Botswana and any suggestion that he aspires to be the president of Botswana again borders on pathological lies. Khama’s political engagement is to influence political developments in the country. Any party led by Khama will have widespread appeal to the areas in CDC and beyond. Khama, amidst the political propaganda pursued by his opponents, was a well-loved president of Botswana. He is an iconic figure in the country and beyond. The rural voters loved Khama,” says Mfundisi.

Mfundisi also holds the view that the BDP created the politics of personalities, and it has to live with it. “Personality cult is here to stay and it has become a political culture in Botswana. The BDP has not learnt a lesson from the development of a cult of leadership and this still continues with Masisi,” Mfundisi states.