Southern Africa at the crossroads of West/Russia war

In the month of January 2023 alone there’s been three highly-significant visits to our Southern African shores by three prominent personages from the world’s leading nations.

If you follow international relations closely, you’ll understand that these were not just routine visits, but they were strategic reconnaissance missions by the leading figures of the United States of America, Russia and the European Union (EU).

The first visit was by the US Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, who in her bilateral meeting with South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana touched on the role of multilateral lending banks in addressing emerging global challenges and the resultant benefits to Africa; South Africa’s role in developing the Pandemic Fund; the Common Framework for debt treatment, given South Africa’s membership in the G20 and its role as co-chair of Zambia’s creditor committee.Secretary Yellen and Minister Godongwana also discussed South Africa’s economic outlook and energy sector reforms especially since South Africa is the first country with a Just Energy Transition Partnership, which Secretary Yellen said the US was proud to commit as a partner.

On the same day (January 26) that Secretary Yellen was waving this carrot to South Africa, US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken was brandishing a stick in a press statement ostensibly designed to counter the Wagner Group and degrade Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.I wish to reproduce Secretary Blinken’s statement in its entirety so that the reader can have a better comprehension of the issues at hand and why I see the recent visits by Secretary Yellen, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and European Union’s (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-president of the European Commission, Josep Borrell, as constituting reconnaissance missions by the US, Russia and the EU. Here is what Secretary Blinken said: “The United States is sanctioning individuals and entities linked to Russia’s para-military Wagner Group and its head, Yevgeniy Prigozhin – including its key infrastructure and associated front companies, its battlefield operations in Ukraine, producers of Russia’s weapons, and those administering Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine.

This action supports our goal to degrade Moscow’s capacity to wage war against Ukraine, to promote accountability for those responsible for Russia’s war of aggression and associated abuses, and to place further pressure on Russia’s defense sector.

In November 2022, the Department of State designated the Wagner Group pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian economy. It was previously designated by OFAC in June 2017 under E.O. 13660 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, directly or indirectly, actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine.Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating the Wagner Group as a significant transnational criminal organization pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13581, as amended by E.O. 13863. The Wagner Group’s pattern of serious criminal behavior includes violent harassment of journalists, aid workers, and members of minority groups and harassment, obstruction, and intimidation of UN peacekeepers in the Central African Republic (CAR), as well as rape and killings in Mali.

Concurrently, OFAC is designating Wagner pursuant to E.O. 13667 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, the targeting of women, children, or any civilians through the commission of acts of violence, or abduction, forced displacement, or attacks on schools, hospitals, religious sites, or locations where civilians are seeking refuge, or through conduct that would constitute a serious abuse or violation of human rights or a violation of international humanitarian law in relation to CAR.

Further, the Department of State is designating today five entities and one individual linked to the Wagner Group and

Prigozhin. These designations target a range of Wagner’s key infrastructure – including an aviation firm used by Wagner, a Wagner propaganda organization, and Wagner front companies. OFAC is also designating persons and entities based in CAR, the People’s Republic of China, Luxembourg, and the United Arab Emirates that are connected to Wagner’s operations around the world.

The Department is also designating under E.O. 14024 three individuals for their roles as heads of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service, which has been reported to facilitate the recruitment of Russian prisoners into the Wagner Group. The Department is also designating a Deputy Prime Minister who also serves as the Minister of Industry and Trade and the Chairman of the Election Commission of the Rostov Region.

The Department is further designating under E.O. 14024 one individual and four entities associated with Russian Oligarch Vladimir Potanin, who was sanctioned pursuant to E.O. 14024 in December 2022. Similarly, the Department is designating Sergei Adonev, a financier of Russian President Putin, alongside several associated entities and individuals. The Department is also identifying two yachts and one aircraft associated with Adonev as blocked property.Additionally, the Department is designating under E.O. 14024 Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo Dalnevostochnyy TsentrSudostroyeniya i Sudoremonta (AO DTSSS) alongside eight subsidiaries. AO DTSSS and its subsidiaries are known for building and servicing Russia’s military, including its Pacific Fleet.

Finally, the Department is announcing steps to impose visa restrictions on 531 members of the Russian military for actions that threaten or violate the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.”

This statement was designed to counter the charm offensive that Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov had mounted on its fellow BRICS partner – South Africa – and two other Southern African nations, eSwatini and Angola – before he headed to Eritrea in East Africa. In all these countries, Lavrov reminded the authorities he met – Cyril Ramaphosa and his foreign minister, Naledi Pandor in South Africa; Prime Minister Cleopas Dlamini in eSwatini and President Joao Lourenco and Minister of External Relations Tete Antonio in Angola - about attempts by the United States and the collective West to draw African states into their anti-Russia policy.Lavrov reiterated that the collective West was on a course to use Ukraine in its mischievous aim of promoting Nazism in theory and in practice and to wage a hybrid war against Russia. He was happy that South Africa will in late August 2023 host the BRICS Summit where all the geopolitical environment will be placed in context.What is exciting about these visits is that South Africa will host a joint military exercise dubbed ‘Mosi’ with the marines of China and Russia on February 24th, a date that marks the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine!

We will discuss the significance of Josep Borrell’s visit in the next installment, but as you may well remember, the EU is something of a lapdog of the USA. It will seem that the EU is repaying the US for that Marshall Plan –and the US’ role in the reconstruction of Europe after the second world war!