Looming climate shocks place economic development on red

A report published by the World Bank this week placed Botswana’s economic development prospects on red, highlighting the danger climate shocks pose to the already ailing economy.

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) report is the bank’s economic barometer for gauging the health of Botswana’s economy against an array of risks.

According to the SCD report, recurring droughts and frequenting heat waves are set to offset the country’s growth targets due to the adverse impact on different sectors like agriculture.

The report further highlighted that climate shocks have the ability to hamper natural water sources which may harm the country’s water sustainability.

“Both growth and poverty reduction are at risk from droughts, flooding, and energy shortages, which threaten the agricultural, industrial and tourism sectors.

Climate shocks have increased in recent years, with severe droughts and flooding mostly affecting the rural population and impeding efforts to reduce poverty and inequality,” the report read.

The Bank further revealed that natural disasters are a major threat to the bottom barrel of Batswana living below the poverty datum line, with impacts of droughts often harming the already impoverished subsistence farmers. “Climate shocks are a particular threat to livelihoods because almost 18% of employment is concentrated in the agricultural sector, the sector is highly dependent on rainfall and natural resources, and its adaptive capacity is low.

“Likewise, tourism is also overwhelmingly dependent on nature-based and biodiversity-driven activities,” the report added.

As part of its recommendations, the report suggested that Botswana’s economy should be green proofed against climate shocks that threaten the tourism and agriculture sectors of Botswana.

“Botswana could leverage its abundant domestic renewable energy resources to provide, affordable, reliable, and green electricity to domestic users and potentially to its neighbours. This could improve its competitiveness and maximise the associated socio-economic benefits for its people,” the report read. Environmental specialists predict that below normal rainfall and above average temperatures are set to afflict most parts of the country in the upcoming rain season, as the El Nino climate phenomenon returns after several years of absence. In the last three years, the country experienced the La Nina climate phenomenon, the flipside of the El Nino occurrence. While La Nina is typically associated with bountiful rains in Botswana and the region, rainfall patterns were haphazard and marked by a mid-season dry spell, forcing government to declare droughts for two of the three La Nina years.

Between January and March, rainfall over most parts of the country is expected to be normal to below normal, although rainfall over the extreme eastern parts is expected to be below normal.

Botswana could leverage its abundant domestic renewable energy resources to provide, affordable, reliable, and green electricity to domestic users and potentially to its neighbours. This could improve its competitiveness and maximise the associated socio-economic benefits for its people," the report read