The Triple Threat: Russia, China, Iran
Michael Mandelbaum’s slim volume has a simple theme: The long peace since the fall of the Berlin
Wall is being threatened primarily by three actors — Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Xi Jinping’s China and Ayatollah Khamenei’s Iran. The only development that hopefully can eliminate the threat of war posed by these countries is the emergence of democracy. Mandelbaum doesn’t have much hope, and wants the reader to understand what is at stake.
This book, as with most of this foreign-policy expert’s writings, presents a clear, structured analysis. Mandelbaum first narrates how peace transformed Europe, East Asia and the Middle East in the past quarter century, before taking the reader down the steps taken by ambitious, authoritarian leaders in Russia, China and Iran that challenge that peace.
China’s “active revisionism,” seeking to recover lost territories and regain its rightful prominence, replacing US hegemony, stems as much from Xi’s ambitions as from the nationalism embedded in Chinese political culture. But slowing economic growth places Xi in a similar position as Putin with falling oil prices. For both, aggressive nationalism has become an appealing tool to cling to power. Meanwhile, Iran’s ambition to dominate the Middle East is challenged by its economic failure, but adventurism abroad allows the clerics to claim the loyalty of its citizens. Introduction of popular sovereignty and liberty, Mandelbaum says, could moderate the behavior of these countries. But don’t hold your breath.