Is Russia killing off Ukrainian warlords?
the region’s governments, and ploughing arms and money into defending them, analysts believe the Kremlin has a newfound interest in extricating itself from the quagmire of eastern Ukraine. It hopes to do so by making the breakaway republics seem respectable to local and international audiences – and that requires eliminating any would-be allies who have trouble following orders.
Pavlov may have qualified as an unruly subordinate. A former blue-collar worker from the Russian republic of Komi, he is said to have earned the nickname “Motorola” during his work as a communications officer in a Russian army battalion serving in Chechnya. In March 2014, he crossed into Ukraine’s febrile, industrial east to join the growing insurgency and became the commander of the Sparta Battalion, which is based in Donetsk and has a reputation for ruthlessness. With his ginger beard, unhinged grin and love of Russian rap and quad-bike joyrides, Pavlov became a wartime media star – loved by some, loathed by others. He even televised his own wedding, a ceremony attended by such separatist luminaries as Igor Strelkov, the commander who led the takeover of the town of Sloviansk and became a hero for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine’s restive Donbass region.
But some regarded Pavlov’s celebrity to be a distraction and Moscow and separatist Ukraine saw him as both a war criminal and a bit player. “He was just a media warrior,” said Mikhail Minakov, a political philosopher at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, a Kiev-based university. “The major figures remain in the shadows.”
And yet the dramatic nature of Pavlov’s murder still came as a shock. Observers regarded him as unwieldy but not disloyal to his superiors in Ukraine and Russia. His murder marks the first successful hit on a high-ranking leader in Donetsk, an indication that the forces picking off separatist leaders may be gaining ground.
A video quickly surfaced on social media that purported to show members of a Ukrainian neo-Nazi group claiming responsibility. The four masked men threatened to target other separatist leaders and ended the clip with a Hitler salute.
Who might want Motorola dead? Many believe that it was one of his own. Feuds over the control of trade routes and contraband energy resources – namely Ukrainian coal and Russian oil – are common. Pavlov was said to have been involved in dealing scrap metal, a profession that the Moscow Times last week called “one of the few growth industries in and around the destroyed Donetsk airport”. By removing competitors, eastern Ukraine’s ruling coalitions of rebel warlords and criminal syndicates could be seeking to tighten their grip on these underground profitable markets.
But privately some separatists acknowledge that the danger may be coming from Moscow. Pavlov’s murder was sophisticated, efficient, and required close access – signs of tradecraft that suggest Russian involvement. Speaking on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, a wellplaced source with links to key figures in the Russian-controlled separatist regime told me: “Some are saying that handlers higher up the chain are cleaning up first-generation rebels to destroy any incriminating evidence and remove witnesses to war crimes. The Kremlin needs its proxies to have a more acceptable public face.”
Eliminating Motorola, and people like him, does not solve the thorniest issues but may, in time, allow Moscow to apply more pressure on Kiev by forcing it to negotiate with less radicalised proxies. Such a shakeup may provide an offramp for the Kremlin, allowing Russia to extricate itself from the deadlock, advocate for the removal of punitive sanctions, and concentrate on its war in Syria.
On October 19, thousands of people turned out for Pavlov’s funeral at Donetsk’s opera and ballet theatre. His coffin was mounted upon a howitzer garlanded with flowers and towed through the streets. For most of Ukraine, he was a war criminal. But in Russia and the breakaway regions, he was an idol who led a valiant charge against Kiev. (Intriguingly, Moscow appeared to distance itself from Pavlov after his death. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said media tributes to the assassinated warlord that appeared across Russia’s staterun and privately owned media were “not the official position”.)
The discredited Minsk peace accords that were signed last year prohibit the prosecution of any figure involved in the conflict. Regardless, many in Ukraine have hoped that the most heinous offenders would be brought to justice. Pavlov was on that list. In a telephone interview last year, his cruelty was laid bare when he confessed to executing prisoners of war. “I don’t give a f— about what I am accused of, believe it or not. I shot 15 prisoners dead. I don’t give a f—. No comment. I kill if I want to. I don’t if I don’t,” he told a reporter.
Last month, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko branded Pavlov a “monster” and swore that the separatist commander would answer for his alleged crimes. Pavlov’s unexplained murder extinguishes any hope of putting him in the dock.
The Kremlin needs its proxies to have a more acceptable public face