Voice against hardliners dies in Iran
WITH the death of Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani on Sunday, Iran’s political factions knew immediately that any space by reformers to manoeuver had just significantly decreased.
Change had come, and it did not favour those seeking to turn Iran into a less revolutionary country with more tolerance and outreach to the West – especially the United States.
Rafsanjani, a former president who helped found the Islamic republic, had been the one man too large to be sidelined by conservative hardliners. Now he was suddenly gone, dead from what state media described as cardiac arrest – and with no one influential enough to fill his shoes.
Iran’s long-marginalised reformists and moderates, who would use Rafsanjani’s regular calls for more personal freedoms and requests to establish better relations with the United States to advance their political agendas, suddenly felt exposed and weakened.
Who would now warn publicly against “Islamic fascism”, when the hardliners sought to influence elections? Who would state openly that there should be a nuclear compromise?
Rafsanjani said things others would not dare to say, and his voice had at least created some tolerance for debates.
“Hardliners will be happy, but this is the start of a period of anxiety for many,” said Fazel Meybodi, a cleric from the holy city of Qum who supports reforms in Iran. “His death disturbs the fragile balance we had in Iran.”
There simply are no replacements for Rafsanjani, analysts from all factions say.
His death also reflects the dwindling number of leaders from the generation that overthrew the shah nearly four decades ago. Most are now in their 80s or even older.
“It is a very powerful reminder that Iran is at the beginning of a major leadership transition that will play a very psychological role in Iran’s politics,” said Vali R Nasr, a Middle East scholar who is dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“I think this in some ways rattles Iran’s political system, in that it underscores the fact that with everything else going on – Syria, the nuclear deal – there will be a passing of the baton to the next generation,” Nasr said.
Two of Rafsanjani’s most important proteges – Hassan Rouhani, the current president, and Mohammad Khatami, a former president – both owe their political careers to him. But Rouhani, up for re-election this year, is fighting for his political life. Khatami, who has been sidelined by conservative adversaries for years, is now even weaker.
Rouhani managed to create a coalition to win the elections in 2013, with Rafsanjani’s support. Having successfully negotiated a nuclear agreement with the United States and other big powers, partly from encouragement by Rafsanjani, Rouhani promised a bright economic future for Iran – which has yet to happen.
With the demise of his mentor and protector, Iran’s president will find it hard to gather the same level of support he received four years ago with the backing of Rafsanjani, analysts say.
“He was a very powerful figure for Mr Rouhani to rely upon,” said Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University who is close to Iran’s leaders. “Many worked with him because of that support. The passing of Mr Rafsanjani complicates the president’s position and makes his re-election less certain.”
Khatami won presidential elections in 1997 after having received Rafsanjani’s support, and led Iran through an era of greater personal freedoms and Western outreach that was quashed by unelected, hardline centres of power.
“It is Mr Khatami who should take on the burden of the late Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s responsibility,” said Mohammadreza Shamsolvaezin, a former reformist politician and activist. But Khatami is all but paralyzed politically. The hardline-dominated judiciary has ordered all Iranian media not to carry his picture or even quote his website. Besides appearances at theatre plays, religious gatherings and art exhibitions, Khatami has remained silent.
Rafsanjani could speak more freely than others, not only because of his revolutionary credentials, but also his friendship with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom he helped become supreme leader in 1989.
Khamenei, who has skillfully played all Iranian factions, would never go as far as to completely isolate Rafsanjani, even when he supported protests that followed the disputed 2009 presidential election. While presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were placed under house arrest in 2011 for their criticisms, Rafsanjani was stripped of several functions but never purged.
In a statement, Khamenei lamented the passing of Rafsanjani. Still, it was clear to many that Khamenei regarded him not only as a friend but a rival, whose absence could now make the role of supreme leader even more powerful.
“The loss of a comrade and ally, with whom I share a friendship that dates back to 59 years ago, is difficult and heart-rending,” said a statement posted on Khamenei’s website on Sunday. He also referred obliquely to their disagreements.
Many conservatives in Iran also suspected Rafsanjani of having used his contacts to undercut Khamenei on issues where Khamenei would choose ideology over diplomacy. Rafsanjani preferred pragmatism and change to keep the ruling system in power.
“The invisible hands of the late Ali Akbar Rafsanjani are gone,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a hardline political analyst who has close relations with many of Iran’s top leaders.
“This means an end to secret meetings by reformists and moderates seeking closer ties with America; from now on we can make decisions much easier and with more coordination.”