Nigeria’s time bomb
AFEW years ago, when the “Africa rising” buzz was in full swing, the continent’s expanding population was often presented as an asset, an advantage over the rest of the world. While Western populaces, particularly in Europe, were ageing, Africa’s fast-growing and youthful population was supposed to provide the dynamism and consumer base needed to power its economy and transform the continent into a global growth engine.
If one country seemed to personify that narrative, it was Nigeria. But now that the global commodity slump has plunged Nigeria into its worst economic crisis in two decades, and pushed youth unemployment through the roof, it’s clear that far from a dividend, the country’s demographics were a disaster.
Part of the optimism surrounding Nigeria’s population growth no doubt stemmed from the country’s natural resource wealth, which was supposed to enable investments in infrastructure, industry and education. But with markets as volatile as they are, it’s clear that oil and gas revenue isn’t enough to keep a country the size of Nigeria afloat. Indeed, since oil prices started to drop in mid-2014, Nigeria’s currency has depreciated more than 170 percent against the dollar while the country’s GDP has contracted accordingly in dollar terms.
The 2017 national budget will be the largest ever when measured in local currency, but at the current market exchange rate though not the official one, which is largely fictitious – it amounts to a meagre $15 billion. The government of Kansas, popula- tion 2.9 million, has a bigger budget than Nigeria.
A nation with a population fast approaching 200 million has earmarked just $290 million for education this year. In other words, a large percentage of young Nigerians will have few of the skills needed to secure decent-paying jobs, build businesses or contribute to a globalised 21st-century economy. Many are likely to join the already 30-millionstrong army of unemployed youths aged 15 to 34.
With such grim employment statistics, it’s little wonder that crime, including kidnappings and armed robberies, is on the rise while ethnic tensions are growing.
So what can be done to defuse this ticking time bomb? Various Nigerian governments have attempted to promote family planning, but these programmes have had limited impact due to their modest scope and inability to change embedded cultural and religious sensibilities that encourage large families. Pushing birth control is not easy in a society where children are regarded as “blessings from God”. Human interference in such matters is considered arrogant and presumptuous.
Economic calculations also drive the desire for many children. In a society lacking a social safety net, parents rely on their kids to provide for them in old age.
Given these realities, it makes sense to turn to the only people capable of changing minds on such sensative issues: religious leaders. Most Nigerians are fiercely attached to their religious leaders, be it the imams and mallams in the Muslim north or the charismatic pastors of the Christian south. In a society where the corrupt political class has been thoroughly discredited, religious leaders are the authority figures. If enough of them could be persuaded the country is headed for disaster if population growth isn’t curbed, they might support a broad-based family planning campaign.
This type of cooperation between religious and political leaders has succeeded in pro- moting family planning in other deeply conservative societies – Iran, for instance – and the basis for it is already in place. Nigeria’s politicians and religious leaders have long enjoyed a symbiotic relationship: Politicians rely on religious leaders to bolster their legitimacy and in return provide generous funding to build mosques and churches. This quid pro quo is especially pronounced in the northern Muslim parts of the country where sharia, or Islamic law, is practised, religious authority is especially strong and birth rates tend to be higher than among southern Christians.
The latest population figures must serve as a clarion call for the Nigerian government and its international partners to come up with policies, programmes and campaigns aimed at slowing down the birth rate while also providing better opportunities for those already born.