The Phnom Penh Post

Is this a bitcoin bubble or a brave new world?

- Sam Reeves

BITCOIN broke through the $10,000 barrier for the first time this week as it extends a stratosphe­ric rise that has delighted investors but sparked fears of a bubble.

The virtual currency hit a high of $10,903 in Asia, according to Bloomberg News, about 14 times its value at the start of the year.

The breakthrou­gh is the latest in a spectacula­r run for the online money dubbed “digital gold” by its advocates, which began life in 2009 as a bit of encrypted software supposedly written by an unknown coder with a Japanese-sounding name.

Bitcoin, valued at just a few US cents when it was launched, has no legal exchange rate, no central bank backing it and is traded on specialist platforms.

What began as the preserve of computer nerds and financial experts has gained a following among a broader group seeking alternativ­es to traditiona­l investment­s, while it has been used to pay for items from a pint in a London pub to a manicure.

The virtual currency has attracted as much anger as praise, however. The boss of JP Morgan Chase labelled it a fraud, while China has closed down bitcoin trading platforms and South Korea this week expressed concern it could lead young investors to become embroiled in fraud.

It got a big boost last month when exchange giant CME Group announced it would launch a futures marketplac­e for bitcoin, which has not been listed on a bourse before.

The announceme­nt sparked a surge in its value – it has risen 50 percent since October alone. The current market value of bitcoin is now around $180 billion, according to Coinmarket­cap.com, which tracks the market capitalisa­tions of cryptocurr­encies. That puts it within touching distance of Coca-Cola, worth $195 billion.

But the spectacula­r rate of growth, which has seen it increase in value from a 2017 low of $752 in mid-January, has also triggered concerns, with critics noting the currency has suffered wild swings in the past.

“This is a bubble and there is a lot of froth. This is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes,” warned hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz at a cryptocurr­ency conference on Tuesday in New York.

Stephen Innes, of forex broker Oanda in Singapore, warned of “crazy numbers” and added: “I’m a little bit fearful that retail traders are jumping in under the false guise of this will run on forever.

“We know things never go in a straight line.”

But other commentato­rs were more positive, saying the unit’s surging popularity will attract cash from traditiona­l investors.

“I think the momentum is still very much to the upside,” Kay Van-Petersen, macro and crypto strategist with Saxo Bank in Singapore, told AFP.

He said it could still suffer pullbacks, but predicted it would be worth $50,000 to $100,000 in the next six to 18 months.

Transactio­ns happen when heavily encrypted codes are passed across a computer network.

Bitcoin and other virtual currencies use blockchain, which records transactio­ns that are updated in real time on an online ledger and maintained by a network of computers. But it has not been without controvers­y.

In one of the most high-profile scandals, Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mount Gox collapsed in 2014 after admitting that 850,000 coins – worth around $480 million at the time – had disappeare­d from its vaults.

While analysts expect the currency to suffer falls, they are betting it will prosper in the long term and see the CME launch as the next big test.

“If it survives the CME, there is no reason why it won’t continue to rise higher,” Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at AxiTrader, said.

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