A detour on Thailand’s election road map

WE CARE little about the actual reason the junta-led government has for citing a legal technicality to delay the next election. What we care about more is the damage being done to the country’s political and economic development. A National Legislative Committee vetting committee recommended last week that a bill covering the election of members of parliament should be come into force only 90 days after its formal promulgation, which could delay the badly needed election another three months. If the NLA approves the proposal and the law is passed as such, the junta chief, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, could genuinely be cast as a liar. He has set a series of election dates, and they’ve always been moved.

He told the leaders of Japan and the United States and he told the United Nations – who all wish to see Thailand return to full democracy – that a firm road map was in place for that purpose and a firm election date had been set. But it looks now that the November 2018 election he promised the international community and the people of Thailand will be postponed at least another three months.

By way of rationale, the vetting committee cited the junta’s recent decision that political parties can begin getting their administrative affairs in order later this year. As per the military-sponsored charter, the election must take place within 150 days of four specific organic laws, including the MP bill, coming into effect.

Speculation has been rife that the 90-day delay would help the junta establish a party of its own to contest the election or make arrangements with a party to back Prayut as prime minister. Authoritarian rulers typically seek to cling to power and will do anything necessary to avert democratic elections, but in this case, the junta is under immense pressure after almost four years in control to stand aside.

The military has to seem to stand down and let the election proceed. Hence, Prayut requires an electoral mandate – even if it comes in the form of properly elected legislators choosing him, among themselves, as an “outsider prime minister”.

Before any election, the junta government will first want to set the national budget and deal with the annual appointment and shuffle of civil servants. That gives Prayut control of the situation heading into the polls. Among other moves, he’ll want to instal an economic czar able to convince voters that, under Prayut, Thailand’s fiscal revival is imminent.

So we’re looking at a possible further detour on the road map. Such shenanigans might well secure Prayut’s political future, but they will also discredit the junta.

The junta bans all political activity, and yet Prayut is clearly mustering political support for himself during mobile Cabinet meetings and his other trips upcountry. Even parties and politicians who had supported the coup have begun complaining of unfairness.

Our rulers are buoyant when they discuss the state of the economy, but our rulers have lost all credibility. Meanwhile we have the word of struggling farmers, businesspeople and ordinary householders that the cost of living has risen too high.For the sake of Thailand’s future, we cannot afford any further delays.