Trade war on the agenda at Bangkok Asean summit

SOUTHEAST Asian leaders will dissect t he i mpact of t he US-China trade war this weekend at a Bangkok summit, with Beijing determined to drive for ward a trade pact sweeping in 40 per cent of globa l commerce – but excluding the US.

Disputes in t he f lashpoint South China Sea a nd Myanmar’s t reatment of Rohing ya Muslims are also likely to make the agenda at the twoday Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting starting on Saturday in t he Thai capita l.

But commerce will dominate, with the trade war bet ween the world’s t wo big gest econom ies push i ng some major manufacturers to f lee China to Southeast Asia and casting doubt s over t he f ut u r e of f r e e t rade.

US President Donald Trump has imposed ta r if fs on $ 200 bi l lion of Chinese goods, from sports shoes and socks to washing machines and f urniture, prompting Beijing to hit back with lev ies on $ 60 billion of US imports.

“One of t he biggest beneficiaries is Asean,” said Drew Thompson, a research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, in reference to t he gains Asia’s lowcost manufacturing nations stand to make from trade tensions between China and the US.

Firms including Brooks Running Company a nd washing machine maker Haier have a lready sta r ted mig r at i ng f rom Ch i na, se ek i ng f r iend l ier, lower-ta r i f f markets i n Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia.

With t he spat grinding on, Beijing is i ntensi f y i ng it s dr ive to sig n a massive trade pact t hat sweeps in Southeast Asia.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) includes a ll 10 Asean economies, plus India, Japa n, Sout h Korea, Austra lia and New Zealand.

It l i n k s about ha l f t he world’s population and is seen as a way for China to dra f t t he a rchitecture of Asia-Paci f ic t rade, fol low i ng a US retreat from t he region.

Shortly after his election, Trump pulled the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) – which would have been t he world’s largest trade deal – slamming it as an American “job k i l ler”.

Backers hoped to sign t he RCEP

deal by t he end of t his year.

B u t n e g ot i a t i o n s h a v e become stick y with Austra lia and New Zealand pushing for “high quality” environmental and labour protections.

India is also seeking guarantees the deal will not force its market open to duty-free goods from its main economic rival China through Southeast Asia.

In seeking to draw its own perimeters, New Delhi is the “glaring objector” to the free trade deal, Thompson added.

E x pectat ions of concrete prog ress i n Ba ng kok have d i mmed – a lt houg h RCEP negotiators are scheduled to meet on Saturday.

In t he absence of a dea l, obser vers wor r y t he shor tterm gains for Asean from the US-China trade war may soon be consumed by fa lling global grow t h rates.

“If China and the US continue and the world economy suffers . . . then it’s just bad news for everybody,” said Fred Burke, managing partner at law firm Baker McKenzie in Vietnam, which specialises in investment.

A s usua l, bit ter d i sputes over competing claims in the South China Sea are likely to su r face i n Ba ng kok a f ter a col lision bet ween a Fi lipino a nd Ch i ne s e s h ip i n t he resource-rich water way.

Some of f icia ls i n Mani la initially blamed Chinese sailors for deliberately ramming t he boat and leav ing Filipino f ishermen stranded at sea.

But Phi lippines President Rodr igo Duter te t his week downplayed the incident, saying it was “just a collision”.

The f lashpoi nt hig h l ig ht s t he urgent need for toug hened-up terms in a Code of Conduct for clashes bet ween fishermen at sea, said Manilabased securit y analyst Richard Heydarian.

“If t he Chinese don’t rein in t hese f ishermen . . . t his is just going to get worse,” he said.

Mya n mar may a lso face pressure over the stalled repatriation of Rohingya Muslims, current ly liv ing in camps in Bangladesh, after more than 740,0 00 of t he persec uted minorit y f led a 2017 a r my crackdown in Rakhine state.

The countr y’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected in Bangkok, as is Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad who has prev iously broken diplomatic protocol by criticising a fellow Asean leader.

An upbeat Asean report leaked to AFP this month was criticised for predicting that half a million Rohingya will soon return, failing to use the word “Rohingya” and glossing over ongoing violence in Rakhine.

“Asean needs to stop turning a blind eye to Myanmar’s atrocities against the Rohingya,” said Eva Sundari, an Indonesian MP and a board member of the Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights.

Campaigners are also urging Asean leaders to tackle the mounting problem of plastic and electronic waste – much of it imported from Western nations and accumulating in Southeast Asia.

Greenpeace this week said t he region has become “t he world’s new dumpsite”.