What next for oil as Israel-Hamas war set for pause?
AFTER reaching a September 28 high of nearly $95 per barrel, a climbing crude oil price tumbled into a downturn, testing a low of $81.56 per barrel on October 6.
However, intensifying geopolitical tensions surrounding the IsraelHamas war that began on October 7 pushed the price back up, reaching its previous support of around $88.24 per barrel.
But the market’s decreasing focus on the war and its effects has played a part in oil’s decline, with a low of $72.22 per barrel recorded on November 16, as this week began with talks of a “pause” to the conflict.
“Israel and Hamas are closing in on an internationally brokered deal to pause fighting and free some of the roughly 240 hostages taken by the militant group, officials close to the talks said, amid heightened scrutiny of the civilian toll of Israel’s invasion of Gaza,” the Wall Street Journal reported on November 19.
The New York City-based international business daily added that the proposed deal was said to involve like-for-like numbers of hostages.
“Under a proposal under discussion on Sunday, Hamas would release a number of women and children kidnapped during the October 7 attacks for around the same number of Palestinian women and children held in Israel prisons, said Egyptian officials close to the talks,” said the WSJ.
Meanwhile, further recent pressure on the price of crude came from a reported oversupply in US oil inventories.
The WSJ reported on data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that “US oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended November 10”, above the estimates of analysts polled in a WSJ survey.
And based on the daily price chart, the price of crude was rallying, reaching around $77 per barrel as of Wednesday, November 22, with the Asian trading session price little changed at around $77.80 per barrel.
“Oil markets are eagerly awaiting [OPEC] and its allies meeting on Sunday 26 November 2023, in anticipation of what kingpin Saudi Arabia decides over its voluntary crude oil production cuts of one million barrel per day,” said industry magazine World Pipelines.
Based on the aforementioned factors, it could be expected for the price of crude oil this week to move from around $75 per barrel to $80.