BRAID: THE DREAM ELECTION
Alberta premier stands firm despite heavy shelling from public and opposition
The coming Progressive Conservative election platform is the stuff of opposition dreams. There’s something in it for everybody — Liberals, New Democrats and Wildrosers.
All the government’s opponents can sum up the PC world view in eight easy words: spending cuts and higher taxes, except for corporations.
Like the dentist who says, “We have to do this, but you’ll feel a lot better later,” Premier Jim Prentice doesn’t try to gloss over his plan.
“Albertans are smart,” he told the Herald’s editorial board on Tuesday.
“They know the circumstances that we’re in, they know that general revenues have collapsed. The only way to deal with it is in a balanced way over three years.”
According to the short- form plan, which the premier passed around the table on one little sheet, there will be spending cuts of $ 1.9 billion this year, $ 2.95 billion next year, and $ 3.87 billion the year after that. Total cuts: $ 8.6 billion. The plan also means hikes to taxes and other revenues of $ 1.5 billion this year, $ 2.16 billion the next year, and $ 2.4 billion the year after that. Total tax hikes: $ 6.1 billion. Prentice isn’t happy about this, but he does seem rather proud. He took pains to explain that the cuts are real, and they’re deep.
He clearly doesn’t want Wildrose-leaners ( more every day, according to polls) to think he’s wimped out on spending cuts.
The problem is that Albertans don’t seem to like it.
Polls show opinion running heavily against most elements of the budget itself, and the prospect of an early election to approve it.
( The polls don’t explain the obvious contradiction — if you really hate something, why pass up a chance to vote on it, and maybe kick out the government?)
I asked the premier if he’d stick to the plan during the campaign in the face of heavy pressure and tumbling public support.
Without agreeing that PC popularity will fall, he pledged not to blink.
“This is the plan we’ve put forward. It’s what we need to do as a province, in the opinion of our government ...
“They’re tough solutions. We’ve done the best job we can of doing it in a balanced way.”
“I’ve felt since Day 1 it should be placed before the people in detail and they should be able to make a choice about it.”
Asked if he’ll stick to the threeyear details in later years, he said the numbers might change a bit with the economy — but yes, that’s it. He seeks the grail of Alberta politics: bringing the budget into true balance.
Prentice will need superhero qualities to get this done. One big problem, both in a campaign and over time, could be his own followers.
PC candidates will get very nervous in the face of rising public hostility. One major reason for an early vote, in fact, is to nail down victory so the MLAs can be safe behind the battlements for four more years.
In Edmonton, the remarkable surge of Rachel Notley’s New Democrats is starting to preoccupy the PCs. The capital has gone over to the NDP twice before ( with 16 seats in 1986 and ‘ 89) and it may be happening again.
Prentice is already working up the counterattack.
“I’ve not seen any proposals from the NDP as to how we’re going to deal with the circumstances we’re in as a province,” he said.
“We’re looking at $ 20 billion in deficits over the next three years. I haven’t seen any solution from the NDP ... in fact, they want to continue to increase wages in the public sector.
“Clearly, in the circumstances we’re in, that’s not sustainable.”
Reminded that the NDP wants to raise corporate taxes — as do many Albertans at large, according to polls — the premier said: “If you’re going to cover a $ 7- billion ( annual) deficit with corporate taxes, Alberta would have the highest corporate taxes in North America, bar none.
“Anybody who thinks that’s the way to make Alberta strong and create jobs is seriously wrong.”
The PCs hope voters will see Prentice as an admirably strong leader who does the tough, necessary things, rather than the easy, popular ones.
At this point, it may not be working out too well.