CHINA’S ISLAND BUILDING ALARMS THE NEIGHBOURS
SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES Just over the horizon from this mostly derelict naval base, the main regional outpost of the U. S. Navy when it ruled the Pacific as its own private lake, another country that aspires to become a global power is busily at work.
To support part of its brazen — some might say preposterous — claim to about 85 per cent of the South China Sea, Beijing is building artificial islands on tiny outcroppings, atolls and reefs in hotly disputed waters in the Spratly Archipelago.
To do so, the Chinese have been using formidable seaborne dredges to haul up huge amounts of sand and coral from the ocean floor, and bulldozing what is brought to the surface onto at least six of the far- flung lumps of rock.
The growing outposts are part of a chain of more than 700 islets, none of which rises more than four metres above sea level. The string of promontories is closest to the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei, in that order. But it is China, with a coastline more distant than any of the others, that has seized and is expanding on scraps of what little high ground there is.
Adm. Harry Harris Jr., commander of the U. S. Navy’s Pacific fleet, dubbed Beijing’s island building project in the South China Sea “a great wall of sand.” Speaking last week in Australia, he said China has created “over four square kilometres of artificial land mass,” adding there were serious questions about Beijing’s intentions.
For its part, China accused the U. S. of meddling and said it could do as it liked in places that had always been part of its sovereign territory, including areas close to the Philippine shoreline.
Beijing’s massive claim, which it calls the nine- dash line, is indicated on ancient Chinese maps and scrolls that showed where Chinese vessels sailed and landed long before European powers “discovered” the region.
In doing so, Beijing is ignoring neighbouring countries far closer to the disputed territories who claim their ancestors have long used these same islets and waters.
To back what it says belongs to China, Beijing has been expanding islets in waters that are clearly within the 200- mile ( 320- km) exclusive zone of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. It has also sent its coast guard to prevent Chinese boats being arrested for illegal fishing and to warn off fishing boats and sailors from countries with territorial claims.
The Chinese actions seriously complicate an already murky legal situation. There is no clear definition or consensus in maritime law about when or if a piece of rock that rises just above the surface can become part of a country’s sovereign territory through expansion by artificial means.
The assumption, backed by surveillance photographs, is China is building military bases, radar facilities and an airfield in the middle of the ocean. Jane’s Defence Weekly estimates the new land mass is more than three kilometres long, capable of handling large aircraft, including long- range bombers and surveillance planes.
To further buttress its territorial claims, Beijing has announced plans to build 60 of what could be the world’s largest amphibious aircraft, the Jiaolong ( or Water Dragon). With a range of 5,500 km, these would operate above and in the South China Sea and beyond.
Whatever China’s motivations and goal, the gambit has further roiled tensions across a region that is central to global trade.
There are three clear reasons the Spratlys, and the other disputed bits of rock and beach in the South China Sea such as the relatively near Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal, are of such keen interest to so many countries. They sit atop what are thought to be large pools of unexploited oil and gas, are surrounded by rich fishing waters and situated astride some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Despite their differences with China, Vietnam and Malaysia have maintained fairly cordial business ties. As a consequence, they have received considerable economic favours, while building up their militaries to try to keep their much bigger rival at bay.
The Philippines, perhaps because its military is so feeble, has not been so lucky. When President Benigno Aquino sent a lone warship in 2013 to defend the Henderson Shoal — a formation whose nearby hydrocarbon resources were seen as crucial for his country’s expanding economy — the ship was immediately surrounded by Chinese patrol vessels in what became a two- month standoff.
The Spratlys are not all China is claiming in the western Pacific. It has vexatious territorial disputes over islets in the East China Sea, also claimed by Japan and South Korea and where warplanes and reconnaissance aircraft have been playing an escalating game of cat- and- mouse since China declared an “air defence identification zone” in 2013.
And it appears Beijing’s ambitions reach beyond the South China and East China seas, which it believes naturally fall within its “sphere of influence.” From Hawaii to the Gulf of Aden and the Mediterranean Sea, its navy has recently been stretching its sea legs. As well as establishing visiting rights for its warships in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, there have even been reports Beijing is seeking to establish a naval base on the southeastern edge of the Atlantic Ocean at Walvis Bay, Namibia.
Ottawa was startled a few years back when China’s Xue Long ( Snow Dragon) icebreaker showed up unannounced off Tuktoyaktuk. The Australians have expressed similar concern recently over what the same ship has been doing in Antarctic waters, where it has four research facilities. Lots more of the same can be expected as China has said it will build several more icebreakers.
There is no suggestion war is imminent in the western Pacific, but the island- building phenomena and China’s well- financed rush to create a deepwater navy with aircraft carriers and scores of submarines are part of a geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy that is trying to reshape the power balance in Asia by pushing the United States back from where its navy has ruled supreme since vanquishing Imperial Japan in 1945.
As China asserts itself with breathtaking vigour, its neighbours have tried to deflect its ambitions by finding shelter under the U. S. security blanket. They have also been quickly building up their own forces.
To match the stealth fighters China is developing, South Korea and Japan are buying F- 35 fighter jets and early warning radar aircraft.
Japan under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is shaking off postwar military restrictions. It is acquiring long- range Global Hawk surveillance drones and building two aircraft carriers. It may jointly develop submarines with Australia, which has also embarked on an unprecedented military spending binge including F- 35s, two huge assault ships and cutting- edge surveillance jets.
Vietnam has acquired four Russian submarines. India, which has its own land disputes with China, has added U. S. transport and surveillance aircraft, and French attack aircraft, while trying to build a fleet of 150 warships, including two aircraft carriers.
Even the Philippines is starting to get its military act together. Without fighter jets to defend itself since 1995, it is buying 36 FA- 50 from South Korea and taking several refurbished ships from the Royal Australian Navy.
Subic Bay is springing back to life, too. U. S. warships will be staging through their old port over the next few weeks as part of a major military exercise that will bring some U. S. and Philippine forces into the disputed South China Sea.
China has already declared its next dramatic move. After its firstever air force exercises last month between Taiwan and the Philippines, it is scoring another first by sending nuclear attack submarines out on patrol from Hainan Island, which borders the South China Sea, state media report.
Phenomena ... is part of a strategy that is trying to reshape the power balance in Asia.