Retail sales rebounding in Alberta

Cautious optimism may be taking root that 2015 won’t be the economic catastrophe some commentators were predicting.

Retail sales in Alberta rose for a second consecutive month in March, despite the sluggish economy, suggesting consumer confidence is rebounding.

Statistics Canada reported provincial sales increased 1.1 per cent in March, to $6.4 billion, with modest gains observed across most store types. On a year-over-year basis, sales in the province were down by 1.7 per cent.

“On balance, it’s a positive report. It shows that, by March, consumers were feeling a little bit more confident about the economy. Still, some caution,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial. “But the real doom and gloom pessimism in January has mostly dissipated ... Retail sales are one of the best barometers of the overall health of the economy.”

“Cautious optimism may be taking root that 2015 won’t be the economic catastrophe some commentators were predicting. It’s looking less like the recession of the century, and more like a garden-variety downturn.”

Across the country, retail sales rose for the second consecutive month in March, advancing 0.7 per cent to $42.5 billion. Despite these increases, retail sales remained below their historical peak recorded in November 2014. Sales in March were up in seven of 11 subsectors, representing 71 per cent of retail trade, said the federal agency.

“Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and food and beverage stores led the gain,” it said.

Year-over-year, sales in Canada were up by 3.1 per cent.

Admir Kolaj, economic analyst with TD Economics, said retail volumes in Canada in the first quarter of this year were down 1.6 per cent annualized from the last quarter.

“This reading ... reinforces our view that the Canadian economy likely saw very little growth in (the first quarter),” said Kolaj.

“While considerable uncertainty remains as to how oil prices will evolve, we expect them to continue recovering gradually over the remainder of the year but to remain at low levels.”