NOT A SURE THING ANYMORE
Tories look to be ahead in the polls, but other parties are gaining ground
Usually when federal parties fight an election campaign, Alberta sleeps while the rest of Canada rants.
This time the province is at least rolling over fitfully. There are signs of consciousness outside Stephen Harper’s Conservative party, which still appears to be ahead in the latest opinion polls but has slid into the mid- 40 per cent range in Alberta.
Behind this lies just a whiff of Alberta’s spring upheaval. Things happen that once were thought impossible.
The federal NDP says 1,500 people turned out for its nomination meeting Saturday in the new Calgary Skyview riding. We can perhaps knock off a few score to account for campaign fact- stretching — but still, such a number would have made any New Democrat laugh only a few months ago.
Reports of organizational weakness among federal New Democrats and Liberals may also be misleading.
The provincial NDP has no trouble drawing decent crowds from across the city to riding events. About 150 saw Premier Rachel Notley on Sunday when she appeared with Bob Hawkesworth, the party’s candidate in the Calgary- Foothills provincial byelection.
Sometimes, enthusiasm and energy count for more than organization and money, especially when people have tasted victory after decades of defeat.
Voters can also make totally unexpected choices when they’re feeling bloody- minded about a government. Recently, a deeply conservative friend stunned me by announcing she’s voting for Thomas Mulcair’s federal NDP.
In the May 5 provincial election, many people were so annoyed at the Progressive Conservatives and ex- premier Jim Prentice that they looked for the candidate most likely to beat a Tory.
That’s how Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark won Calgary-Elbow. If the same mood takes hold in the federal campaign, Liberal Kent Hehr could very well beat Conservative incumbent Joan Crockatt in Calgary Centre.
How many seats might the Conservatives lose, in the province where they now hold all but one?
Five would be a reasonably optimistic total for the opposition parties; say, four in Edmonton, and Calgary- Centre here.
But then, reasonable estimates before the provincial election called for the NDP to win no more than 20 seats. They got 53. Anger and disgust overwhelmed every Alberta precedent.
It happened even though the Progressive Conservatives began the campaign with strong support in the polls, plenty of cash to buy ads, and a firm conviction of their own invincibility.
That pretty much describes the state of Harper’s Conservatives in Alberta.
The campaign still has two months to run before the Oct. 19 election. And it is not going well for the Conservatives.
Mike Duffy’s trial is reaching deep into the Prime Minister’s Office, raising doubts about Harper’s role in all this, and showing a stunning level of cynicism and manipulation among his aides.
They exchanged emails saying “this is fun” and “sweet!” when they thought they were winning the battle to bury the affair after then chief of staff Nigel Wright paid Duffy $ 90,000 to reimburse his expenses.
This trial has become the most penetrating look ever into the workings of the all- powerful modern PMO, vindicating years of opposition claims that the government is secretive and deceptive at its heart.
Harper appears to calculate that this is still a pocketbook election to be won with homerenovation credits and child benefit cheques, supplemented by anti- terrorism measures and support for the military.
In that sense, the Conservative campaign is very different from Prentice’s effort to persuade people they had to pay higher taxes for the greater benefit of the provincial budget. Harper plays the safer game by appealing to self- interest.
But there are moments when larger issues of style and integrity swamp pothole politics. The Duffy trial could be the pivot point.
Of course, it remains difficult to imagine the end of Conservative Alberta, or even Harper’s defeat on the national level.
But it was only four months ago that nobody imagined Premier Rachel Notley — including Rachel Notley.
It was only four months ago that nobody imagined Premier Rachel Notley — including Rachel Notley.