Justin still hangs on, keeps party’s hopes alive
Justin Trudeau, though no longer a shoo- in to become prime minister in October, or ever for that matter, is so far in this campaign doggedly resisting the inevitability of his own catastrophic implosion, as mapped out months ago by his opponents. This must be galling them no end, since it puts the Liberals in a position to emerge with more influence than they’ve had in years, whether or not they form a government this fall.
In a nutshell, Trudeau has ( so far) managed to surprise to the upside in the two key areas where he absolutely had to do so, to keep his party’s hopes alive, after a long decline in public support that began last winter. Policy- wise, the Grits this spring replaced what had been a blank slate with a suite of deftly calibrated measures that sidestep the major policy errors of the 2008 and 2011 campaigns. And Trudeau himself has proved far more adept at explaining his intentions, in the one leaders’ debate so far, and in town halls or scrums, than a series of Tory attack ads led voters to expect he would.
Speaking of which, let’s consider again the double- edged nature of the modern attack ad. Many will argue Trudeau’s drop from first to third place in the polls was at least partly a result of the steady drumbeat of messaging holding him to be “just not ready,” though he has “nice hair.”
They have a point. But the corollary is a Conservative party with a record that is in key respects laudable — the fight against ISIL, for example, and moderate, centrist economic stewardship — that has sullied its own brand, exacerbated Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s personal negatives and created a frame within which Trudeau can exceed expectations. Should Harper lose power Oct. 19, it will be difficult to argue the stupidity of these ads, which many Conservative supporters dislike, were not at least partly to blame.
But we digress: given how the ads set the stage for Trudeau to unmask himself as unable to string three words together without praising a communist dictatorship, what has he done to turn things around? It gets to the subtleties of leader brand- building in the era of 24/ 7 video.
As a starting point, Trudeau changed the way he speaks. Three years ago or even 12 months past, the Liberal leader had a more florid speaking style, rife with unconscious small nods and gestures that together lent him an impression of drama and lacked gravitas. Those are gone now — though occasionally, when he’s feeling especially confident or addressing an audience he considers friendly, the tics can creep back in. Trudeau has learned to frown stolidly, glare impassively and scowl grimly — all important for a leader measuring himself against Harper, for whom these expressions come naturally.
Second, likely as a result of the hours of debate prep he’s undergone since May, Trudeau has acquired an internal editor. He no longer seems compelled to fill every silence with words, rather taking time to pause, frame his argument and re- frame it if necessary. Even mild garbling of a line, such as last week’s “from the heart outward” meme, can create a small conflagration on Twitter. And a serious mistake now, on the scale of some of his previous gaffes, could sink him.
Third, and most obviously, Trudeau has saleable policy, which he communicates clearly and can persuasively defend. Given the broad policy convergence that characterizes our politics now, the Liberals’ challenge was not so much to craft bold change across the board, as it was to tweak where polls show most voters are broadly satisfied with the status quo ( a low- tax, smaller- government model without massive new federal program promises), proceed pragmatically where this is warranted, as with Senate reform, and strike out boldly where sweeping change is needed, as in reversing the concentration of power in the Prime Minister’s Office. Taken together, it adds up to a nearly deadlocked race and a projection, according to the latest aggregated data from ThreeHundredEight. com, of 95 Liberal seats — almost triple the current 36, in a minority government led by the New Democratic Party. Even a third- place showing, with those kinds of numbers, would make Trudeau a kingmaker in the next parliament. The Conservatives, certainly, did not bank on his hanging in this long.