If Notley is just hoping for the best, it’s not much of a fiscal plan

The NDP will have to raise taxes unless they’re waiting for another oil boom

For a budget so devoid of courage or boldness, it’s hardly surprising that there’s been a rather tepid response to it.

Last week brought us the long- awaited debut budget from Alberta’s new NDP government, and the early verdict isn’t encouraging. A Mainstreet poll, published by the Herald on Monday, finds that a mere 31 per cent of Albertans approve of the budget, compared with 43 per cent who gave it a thumbs down. Furthermore, a whopping 58 per cent of Albertans believe the province is heading in the wrong direction.

Presumably, there’s some overlap between those who voted NDP just six months ago and those who feel the budget misses the mark or takes us further down an undesirable path. However, it’s not clear what those voters were expecting. All things considered, there’s little surprising in this budget.

We already knew that we were headed for a massive deficit this year, and the finance minister had previously confirmed that the deficit would be larger than first expected. We already knew that the NDP government was going to raise taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. We knew, or should have known, that the NDP wasn’t going to cut spending and was certainly not going to take on the public sector unions.

And, of course, we knew that revenues from oil and gas had dropped off considerably.

Given all the NDP had promised to do, and all that they were expected to do, it was entirely predictable that they would rely heavily on borrowing.

That, in fact, may be one of the bright spots for the NDP government in this Mainstreet poll. On the question of borrowing to fund capital projects, 49 per cent approved versus 41 per cent who disapproved. Additionally, 55 per cent expressed a belief that Alberta shouldn’t cut back on capital spending for roads, hospitals and schools.

However, this budget isn’t borrowing just to build infrastructure. By next year, the NDP government will be borrowing to cover operating costs. Moreover, it’s not clear when that borrowing will end or how the government intends on balancing the books and repaying that debt.

So instead, we have a government that wants to be all things to all people, to keep taxes low and spending high, and simply wait for another oil boom to bail us out. Sound familiar?

Remember, this is the government that was going to end our dependence on oil revenues and get us off the royalties rollercoaster. Well, with resource revenues now representing less than 10 per cent of total revenues, we’re there already. This is what ending that dependence looks like. And so what’s the government’s plan? As of now, the plans seems to be to borrow until the roller- coaster lifts us back up.

If the NDP government truly believes the size of government is as small as it can possibly be, that it in fact needs to grow larger and do more, and that resource revenues shouldn’t be the basis on which we fund that growth, then they need to be honest about what that looks like.

If spending needs to be at a certain level, then the government has an obligation to explain how they’ll get revenues to that level. In that respect, this budget is a cop out.

A PST or HST, for example, would raise billions of dollars, yet Premier Rachel Notley has explicitly rejected the idea — much like her predecessors all did. But how long until she’s forced to revisit that pledge?

Either a significant tax increase is coming, or the government is admitting it was never serious about getting off the royalties roller- coaster. Simply hoping for the best isn’t much of a plan — but maybe this government never had one in the first place.

We have a government that wants to be all things to all people.