A LOSS OF CONFIDENCE

Beyond jobs and construction booms, there’s probably nothing that speaks to a city’s confidence more than an influx of newcomers. When a city is blossoming, when an economy is in full swing, people flock there seeking a better quality of life.

Calgary has long been a magnet for workers from other provinces. Many Maritimers moved here and commuted north when the Fort McMurray oilsands began to heat up in the ’70s. Folks from Ontario and Saskatchewan have come west, too, seeking work and what the former Conservative government coined the Alberta Advantage.

But this year’s civic census is a stark example of how far we’ve fallen as a province.

More people left Calgary than moved to the city, according to 2016 census data released Wednesday. The population did increase, by 4,256, but that was due to a natural increase in births over deaths. When that is accounted for, the city’s net migration was negative by about 6,500. The last time that occurred was in 2009-10, when 4,154 people left Calgary.

Mayor Naheed Nenshi wasn’t surprised. “As expected, the economic downturn has slowed our growth ... What we’re seeing here is roughly what we saw in 2010.”

That may be true but it’s troubling nonetheless. With fewer citizens, there’s less of a tax base to draw upon, less disposable income feeding the local economy. The numbers for the province are equally bad. According to StatsCan, more people left Alberta than moved in during the last quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of this year, ending five years of net population increases. The net loss was 2,677.

The provincial government is projecting two straight years of recession in 2015 and 2016.

It wasn’t that long ago that Calgary reigned supreme in the country. In 2014, when net migration was more than 28,000 people, the city rated an A in attractiveness to newcomers, according to the Conference Board of Canada. “Calgary has been an economic powerhouse for many years, so the fact it outperforms all other cities in this category is not a surprise,” it noted.

Now, with oil hovering around the $45 mark and thousands of job losses in the past year, Calgary has become a place that some people are looking to leave.

This city has so much to offer, from great postsecondary options to a vibrant cultural scene. But a city needs jobs to attract and keep workers. It needs diversification to buffer the effect of oil industry downturns. It needs to regain its confidence as a city — one that can rise and once again become a powerhouse where people come to stay.