MacKay, Raitt still best Tory options
Party requires strong candidate to beat Trudeau
‘This leadership race is turning into an episode of Veep,” said one former Conservative cabinet minister, referring to the American political satire show.
Certainly the news that veteran Conservative MP Deepak Obhrai intends to run brought to mind some of Veep’s more cutting barbs: “He’s middle of the road — mediocre. Of all the — ocres, he’s the mediest.”
Then came word that the Tories’ former obfuscator-in-chief, Paul Calandra, was collecting signatures for a leadership bid — which, if confirmed, would officially transform the race from the sublime into the ridiculous.
Not so, the prime minister’s former parliamentary secretary told my colleague Jason Fekete, he is merely collecting signatures for other candidates who need to amass 300 names to run. “I’m not contemplating seeking the leadership,” he said, which at least suggests selfdelusion has not infected the whole conservative herd.
Among the other four declared candidates — Maxime Bernier, Tony Clement, Michael Chong and Kellie Leitch — there are many virtues. They are all honourable people and deserve our respect for their public service.
Bernier, in particular, has run an energetic campaign, rehabilitated his reputation and presented a raft of interesting policy suggestions on supply management, telecom deregulation and opening Canada Post to competition. For a man who does not seem to believe in the concept of the political “third rail,” it will be intriguing to hear what he has to say on health care reform.
But, given recent shifts in NDP support to the Liberals, the Conservatives will have to find two million more votes at the next election if they are going to come close to winning.
Are any of the candidates mentioned above likely to have the drawing power necessary to expand the party’s support? The former minister I chatted with over drinks didn’t think so.
As the new British prime minister, Theresa May, said of her own Conservatives: “Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies. You know what some people call us? The Nasty Party.”
The successful candidate needs to champion the big things that Conservatives of all shades believe — low taxes, balanced budgets, free trade.
But there should also be a much more conciliatory tone than that adopted under Stephen Harper — one targeted in particular at women and urban voters.
Interim leader Rona Ambrose has made great strides in that regard, even if that’s not apparent in polling numbers that suggest Justin Trudeau can defy political gravity. Yet we are only nine months into his tenure and voters have not yet been given sufficient casus belli.
The name of reality television star, Kevin O’Leary, is floated, not least by himself, as a potential Conservative leadership candidate. Given the success of Donald Trump in the U.S., it would take a very careless pundit to dismiss the possibility.
But, as Calandra told Fekete, “it’s not a must but it’s certainly helpful if you have a seat in the House of Commons already.”
Andrew Scheer, the former Speaker of the House, is taking soundings across the country, presenting himself as a “solid conservative” who wants to take the hard edge off a good product.
But Scheer is an unassuming character — he admits he hates to talk about himself — and he might best serve his party by providing some true-blue credentials to the bids of either of the two undeclared candidates most capable of taking on Trudeau in 2019 — Peter MacKay and Lisa Raitt.
Friends say MacKay is genuinely torn about whether to re-enter politics.
He has been active in trade files for his law firm, Baker MacKenzie, and has become a prized commodity post-Brexit vote, with the elevation of Philip Hammond (to Chancellor of the Exchequer) and Liam Fox (to trade minister) in the U.K. Both were British defence ministers during MacKay’s time in the portfolio.
MacKay is now living in Toronto with his wife, Iranian-born model and human rights activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam, and their two young kids, all of which suggests he may be disinclined to enter the political moshpit again.
But friends say he is frustrated at watching the rollback of policies he pioneered as justice minister.
“I’ve been giving serious consideration to running. I have been hearing from many people across the country but am not yet at a point to make any decisions public,” he said by email.
Raitt said her position is “hardening,” indicating she is “more than 50 per cent inclined to run.”
Two years ago, she was encouraged with some enthusiasm to run for the vacant Ontario PC leadership; as a female, Toronto-area MP with years of cabinet and private sector experience, she was viewed as a good catch. Unfortunately, a cancer scare that later proved benign blocked her entry on that occasion. There may yet be factors that dissuade her from running this time.
But there is a sense among many Conservatives that if the Liberals are to be run close this time, few are a better foil for the aristocratic Trudeau than the blue-collar girl from Cape Breton.