IF RUSSIA IS BANNED FROM RIO…
… Dozens of medals are up for grabs
ATHLETICS Russia’s track and field team has already been banned from the Rio Olympics, although a group of athletes has challenged that ruling to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, saying this violates their individual right to compete. A decision is expected Thursday. Decathlete Damian Warner of London, Ont. is ranked second in the world behind American Ashton Eaton, and is favoured to win a silver medal. Ranked behind him in the third spot is Russian Ilya Shkurenyov. Some Russians who were projected to reach the podium in Rio — including Mariya Savinova, who won gold over 800 metres in London, and Tatyana Chernova, the bronze medallist in heptathlon in Beijing and London — have since been banned for doping. Russian high jumper Ivan Ukhov won gold in London and silver at the 2014 world championships, but dropped to 24th in 2015, suggesting he already would have posed less of a threat to Canadian high jumper Derek Drouin of Sarnia, Ont., the reigning world champion. CANOE KAYAK Mark de Jonge of Halifax is the reigning two-time world champion in men’s K-1 200 metres and is favoured to win gold in Rio. His closest Russian challenger is Yury Postrigay, who’s ranked fifth in the world. Mark Oldershaw of Burlington, Ont., a bronze medallist in London who heads to Rio ranked No. 9 in the world in the C-1 1,000 metres, could benefit from the absence of Russian Ilya Shtokalov, who finished fifth at the most recent world championships. TRAMPOLINE Canada’s lone gold medallist in London, Rosie MacLennan, will be challenged most by the Chinese in her event, although the potential absence of 2015 European champion Yana Pavlova, who was eighth at worlds, won’t hurt. On the men’s side, 2008 Olympic silver medallist Jason Burnett of Etobicoke, Ont. placed 16th at the recent world championships and is not expected to reach the podium in Rio. Four Russians — including bronze medallist Dmitirii Ushakov, who won silver in 2012 — finished ahead of him, but so did 11 others. SWIMMING Russians aren’t strong in Canada’s best events, except for one: the men’s 100-metre freestyle race, in which Santo Condorelli of Toronto placed fourth at the 2015 world championships. The absence of Russian Alexandr Sukhorukov, who finished sixth in that race, may not impact who makes the podium, but it could. Condorelli was the slowest qualifier in the final, finishing just behind the Russian in his semifinal heat. CYCLING On the mountain, both Emily Batty of Brooklin, Ont. and Catharine Pendrel of Kamloops, B.C., have podium potential: Batty won bronze at the 2016 world championships while Pendrel, a two-time world champion, was fifth. Russian Irina Kalentieva — a bronze medallist at the Beijing Olympics who was fourth in London and has made the world championship podium eight times, winning twice — was sixth at the championships. On the track, Canada is projected to win just one medal: in women’s team pursuit, where Russia is not competitive. A Russian ban could improve Canada’s chances in other women’s events, including team sprint: led by Anastasia Voynova, Russia won silver at worlds, while Canada was ninth. GYMNASTICS Getting a Canadian on the Olympic podium in this sport was always going to be a long shot, with or without the Russians. But their absence would make an upset a little bit easier for Canada’s women. Russia finished fourth in the team event at the 2015 world championships, while Canada was sixth. On the beam, Viktoria Komova was fourth, while Ellie Black of Halifax — who won five gold medals at the Pan Am Games — was seventh. WRESTLING Erica Wiebe, of Calgary via Stittsville, Ont., is ranked No. 2 in the world in the 75-kg weight class and is favoured to reach the podium in Rio. Other Canadian women also have the ability to reach the podium, although they aren’t ranked as highly as Wiebe: Jasmine Mian, of Calgary via Barrie, Ont., is ranked No. 8 in the world with Russian Valentina Islamova one spot ahead of her at No. 7 in the 48-kg class. Dory Yeats of Montreal is ranked No. 9 in the 69-kg class and could benefit from the absence of world No. 3 Natalia Vorobieva, the 2015 world champion.