Albertans give carbon tax thumbs down in new poll
A new poll shows two-thirds of Albertans oppose the NDP government’s new broad-based carbon tax, but narrowly support its plan to quickly phase out coal-fired power.
The survey by Lethbridge College’s Citizen Society Research Lab shows opposition among Albertans to the carbon tax, which comes into effect Jan. 1, at 67.2 per cent.
A majority of poll respondents — 52.5 per cent — consider themselves strongly opposed.
The tax, aimed at lowering Alberta’s Canada-leading greenhouse gas emissions and helping win support nationally for new pipeline projects, has 32.8 per cent support.
Faron Ellis, the Lethbridge College political scientist who oversees the poll, said the government is taking a political risk because the tax is prompting a negative reaction before Albertans start paying.
“History is not on the side of the government,” he said.
“Taxes tend to be more popular before they’re implemented. “We’re into uncharted territory.” Ellis acknowledged an unknown factor in how the tax will be received is the government’s plan to issue rebates to a majority of households. The economywide tax — based on the equivalent of $20 per tonne of CO2 emissions in its first year — will add 4.5 cents to the price of a litre of gasoline and 5.35 cents for diesel. The cost of natural gas will rise by more than $1 per gigajoule.
The government says the average family with two children will pay an additional $433 in direct and indirect costs in the first year. The government has vowed, however, to provide rebates ranging from $100 to $360 to low and middle-income households to offset the levy. Twothirds of provincial households will receive at least a partial rebate.
“I see what the government’s thinking: ‘You won’t notice it that much on your monthly bills and … the gas (price), these things fluctuate regularly, and if you’re receiving a rebate, you’ll maybe get used to it and it’s going to save the planet, so rah rah,’” Ellis said.
The tax and rebates are slated to increase in 2018 based on an emission price of $30 a tonne.
The federal government has said it will require provinces to implement a carbon pricing mechanism that year that will rise to $50 a tonne in 2022.
The carbon tax is part of a suite of policies the government says will lower projected emissions growth by 50 megatonnes by 2030, stabilizing Alberta’s greenhouse gas production at current levels.
The climate strategy also includes a plan to end the use of coal-fired power in the province by 2030.
The Lethbridge College poll shows 52.5 per cent of Albertans support the accelerated coal phaseout, compared to 47.5 per cent who are opposed.
Ellis noted the potential impact of the coal plan on Albertans is yet to be determined.
In her state-of-the-province address Wednesday in Calgary, Premier Rachel Notley made it clear the government won’t blink on its climate policies.
She noted that 60 per cent of the province’s power comes from coal.
“Our province is by far the biggest coal pollution emitter in Canada,” Notley said. “That is going to end.”
Details of the government’s plan, including compensation for companies that own six plants that would have continued operating past 2030 without the phase-out, will be released in the fall.
Notley also has repeatedly rebuffed calls for the government to either scrap or delay the carbon tax.
“We are going to price carbon, exactly as most credible economists — many of them conservative — argue will create the right incentives to reduce emissions at the least economic cost,” the premier said in her speech.
The climate plan has come under heavy fire from opposition parties.
Wildrose Leader Brian Jean told a Calgary Rotary Club audience this week both the carbon tax and the coal phase-out should be killed.
“It takes too much money out of the pockets of families, families that need that money for themselves.”