‘Trade really is the big issue here …’
What that means is unclear. But what isn’t in dispute is that trade remains critical for thousands of Albertans.
In 2015, Alberta conducted more than $100 billion in business with the United States, with provincial exports making up 80 per cent of that commerce.
“Trade really is the big issue here,” said Martha Hall Findlay, chief executive of the Canada West Foundation, who called for the country to continue to aggressively engage the U.S. leadership.
“If we don’t do anything, if we just sit back and watch Donald Trump and the ripple effects of his administration through the different state governments, then it could be a problem for a variety of industries.
“But if we really engage at the sub-national level, province to state, municipality to municipality, business to business, and really engage in almost more education than lobbying … it can’t be bad. But it could also be really important in a positive way.”
Several possible trade irritants remain between the two countries, from Trump’s push to renegotiate NAFTA to discussions by Republican congressional leaders about a border adjustment tax, which has the potential to drive up the cost for Canadian energy moving south.
Alberta supplies more than one-third of all American crude oil imports and the province continues to be the largest foreign supplier of natural gas.
The long-standing softwood lumber dispute and country of original labelling (COOL) fracas are other potential landmines that could affect jobs in Alberta.
And make no mistake, the focus for provincial and federal leaders must remain on the employment and commerce created by uninterrupted Canada-U.S. trade.
Premier Rachel Notley is already planning a trip to Washington, D.C., at the end of this month to talk about trade. On Friday, Notley sat down with 16 oil and gas leaders to discuss ties with the U.S. in advance of her trip.
Precision Drilling Corp. CEO Kevin Neveu, one of the oilpatch executives at Friday’s gathering, said the possibility of a border adjustment tax remains “a big concern for the industry,” in part due to the lack of clarity about the issue and where it’s headed.
“Anything that might impact Canadians exports should be a concern. But I think it’s very complicated, in that this is one of those taxes on energy inputs that might be more damaging to the U.S. economy than the Canadian economy,” Neveu said.
“We’re all concerned about it, we all want to make sure that we understand what the implications might be.”
Mercifully, the Washington summit between Trudeau and Trump avoided any unpleasantness about a new border taxes side-swiping Canadian exports.
The head of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers was also encouraged by the joint statement, noting it mentioned all of the important issues the sector hoped would be up for discussion.
“To have Keystone XL specifically highlighted ... is a really good sign and speaks to the importance it has for both parties,” said Tim McMillan.
For his part, Trudeau hammered on the mutual benefits of keeping products moving across the border, noting 35 states list Canada as their largest export market.
The good news is there was little dispute of these points. Trump went out of his way to be, well, neighbourly.
“We’re going to have a great relationship with Canada, maybe as good or better, hopefully, than ever before,” he said. Let’s hope that’s the case. When swimming with sharks, you can’t lose focus for even one moment. Once they smell blood, the trouble begins.