Left turn by B.C. voters may hurt pipeline, Alberta
That’s one scary poll for Alberta’s economic future.
Not the latest one on Alberta politics, which shows a big lead for both conservative parties over the NDP.
No, the spooky poll is a companion Mainstreet Research survey about the B.C. election that’s coming fast, on May 9.
It shows Premier Christy Clark’s governing Liberals in a dead heat, at 37 per cent, with John Horgan’s NDP.
The big surprise is a surge by the Greens to 17 per cent, the highest they’ve ever been.
It would be hard to find a single B.C. Green who isn’t opposed to the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline.
The question for Horgan is, will he impede the pipeline if the NDP takes power, maybe with the support of a significant Green contingent? The answer is yes. On Jan. 12, Horgan said B.C.’s formal approval “does not change my view that some risks are too great.”
If the NDP wins in May, he would use “every tool in our tool box” to stop the pipeline.
For Premier Rachel Notley’s NDP, the question is what Alberta should do if their sister party actively tries to block a project that already has federal cabinet approval.
“We have a fundamental disagreement over this,” says Cheryl Oates, Notley’s media spokeswoman. “We have advocated for Kinder Morgan and will always do what’s in Alberta’s best economic interest.”
One step would be to reject B.C.’s pitch to sell hydro power to Alberta. Energy Minister Marg McCuaig-Boyd has already made it clear that without a pipeline, B.C. electrons are unwelcome.
“We’ll do what’s best for Albertans and Alberta’s economy,” she said last March. “We won’t be buying more power if we can’t get our resources to market.”
Notley had a meeting with Horgan in December. It was friendly, but the interprovincial party wall did not come down.
“Rachel Notley has to support the best interests of Alberta,” Horgan said then.
“But my responsibility as leader of the (B.C.) Opposition and someone who wants to lead the government in a few short months, my responsibility is to protect the public interest here.
“I believe and I made it clear to the premier (Notley) that I don’t want to see a seven-fold increase of tanker traffic coming out of our greatest city, nor do British Columbians.”
At the start of the 2013 campaign, the NDP was more than 20 points ahead of the Liberals. They still lost, after a spectacular collapse under then-leader Adrian Dix.
After 16 years of Liberal rule, that might not happen again. Tuesday’s B.C. budget made some obvious vote-getting moves — getting rid of PST on electricity, for instance.
The wild card may be the Greens. At 17 per cent, they’re roughly where Notley was a few months before she won the 2015 Alberta election.
Sine then, underdogs have consistently beaten the odds. Justin Trudeau won. Brexit won. Donald Trump won.
Everywhere, there’s deep unhappiness with the status quo. The beneficiaries can come from left, right or centre — as long as they’re untainted by the past.
Green Leader Andrew Weaver has a PhD in applied mathematics from UBC. Some B.C. observers say he’s hugely intelligent and politically gifted.
His bio says: “He has authored or co-authored over 200 peerreviewed, scientific papers and was the chief editor of the Journal of Climate from 2005-2009.” It goes on like that, a litany of awards for his work in climate change modelling and much else.
In parts of Alberta, a pointyhead resume like that won’t get you a cup of coffee. But such work is highly regarded over wide swaths of B.C.
Weaver absolutely despises Kinder Morgan. At hearings into the project, he submitted hundreds of questions that weren’t answered to his satisfaction.
Weaver thundered: “We have a project being approved that most British Columbians are against. We have a process that actively excluded communities. Now the government is arbitrarily suggesting that its conditions have been met, while the evidence shows that’s impossible.”
For the Alberta NDP, this is a very strange situation. Their hearts want the Liberals to lose. But their heads tell them only a Liberal win ensures pipeline success, and perhaps their own re-election.