Most Albertans opposed to the carbon tax: poll

After almost two months of living with the province’s carbon tax, nearly two-thirds of Albertans remain opposed to the new levy and about half say it’s had a major impact on their lives, according to a new poll.

The carbon levy, which came into effect Jan. 1, is a key initiative in the NDP government’s ambitious plan to reduce Alberta’s Canada-leading output of greenhouse gas emissions.

The Mainstreet Research survey conducted for Postmedia on Feb. 9 and 10 shows a slim majority of provincial residents — 52 per cent — believe human activity is the driver of global climate change, while 39 per cent say it stems from natural causes.

Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said the relatively narrow margin of Albertans who believe in man-made climate change — compared to the scientific consensus that it is very likely humans are the primary cause — is a complicating factor for the NDP government as it draws up environmental policy.

“At election time, expert opinion doesn’t really matter. Public opinion matters,” Maggi said in an interview Wednesday.

“It makes it hugely harder and it makes it very, very difficult from a public policy perspective to make decisions that are knowingly contrary to a large chunk of the population’s opinion on something.”

The Mainstreet poll shows 64 per cent of Albertans opposed to the carbon tax, based on the equivalent of $20 per tonne of emissions. The levy has 34 per cent support. Opposition to the carbon tax has actually ebbed slightly compared with a similar Mainstreet poll in December of 2015, shortly after the climate plan was unveiled, which showed 66 per cent opposition and 29 per cent support for the carbon tax.

Earlier this month, Premier Rachel Notley said she believes there is gradually increasing acceptance of the carbon tax but wouldn’t hazard a guess as to where support is in the province right now.

“Our government has been very focused on doing what we can to make life better for Albertans. So the more Albertans see the benefit of this, the more they will develop perhaps even grudging acceptance that it’s not all bad,” said Notley.

The government has also presented its climate plan as a way to win support in other provinces for pipeline projects aimed at opening markets for oilsands crude.

The tax, which boosts the cost of gasoline by 4.49 cents per litre and natural gas by $1.011 per gigajoule, will rise to an equivalent of $30 a tonne in 2018. Following the mandate of the federal government, it will increase to $50 by 2022.

Revenue collected from the tax is earmarked for areas such as green transportation and alternative energy development. About two-thirds of Albertans receive at least a partial rebate under the government program.

The poll shows 51 per cent of respondents feel the carbon tax has had a major impact on their lives, while 42 per cent call the impact minor and three per cent say there has been no impact.

“I think the fact that it’s actually pretty evenly split tells you these opinions are a little bit subjective,” said Maggi.

On regional lines, only 25 per cent of Edmonton respondents said the tax had a major impact, compared to 54 per cent in Calgary and 58 per cent in the rest of the province.

The tax has faced fierce attacks politically, with both Wildrose Leader Brian Jean and Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Jason Kenney vowing to scrap it if they become premier in 2019.

Reviews are mixed for other parts of the NDP’s sweeping climate agenda.

The survey finds only 31 per cent of Albertans approve of the government’s plan to cap oilsands emissions at 100 megatonnes — they are currently around 66 megatonnes — while 54 per cent are opposed.

The most popular measure in the NDP’s plan is the phase-out of coal-fired power by 2030, which has 58 per cent support and only 33 per cent opposition.

The poll shows that the response to the government’s plan appears to track along partisan lines.

The carbon tax, coal phase-out and emissions cap all have their strongest support in Edmonton, where Mainstreet polling shows the NDP in the lead despite being in third place provincially.

The company’s political survey released Tuesday shows the Progressive Conservatives leading in Calgary and Wildrose ahead in the rest of the province.

“The NDP knows their base supports this,” said Maggi.

“So, even though a big chunk of the population doesn’t support a carbon tax, they know ... they’re not alienating any part of their base.”

In Edmonton, 63 per cent of residents believe climate change is caused by human activity, with 32 per cent attributing it to natural causes.

Less than half of Calgarians — 47 per cent — believe in man-made climate change, while 41 per cent say it is natural. In the rest of Alberta, the numbers skew to 51 per cent human activity, 40 per cent natural.

Mainstreet polled a random sample of 2,589 Albertans using automated phone calls on Feb. 9 and 10.

The margin of error is plus or minus 1.93 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin for Calgary-specific results is 3.28 percentage points and for Edmonton is 3.56 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

At election time, expert opinion doesn’t really matter. Public opinion matters.