For Kenney, leadership win is just the start

He must get party, Wildrose on board to unite the right

If you follow Alberta politics casually, you probably know that March 18 will be a pretty big deal. That’s when Progressive Conservatives will choose a new leader at their convention in Calgary.

However, if you follow Alberta politics closely, you’ll know the big date is really March 19.

That’s because we already pretty much know what will happen on the 18th. Jason Kenney will win the leadership race. The big question is what happens the day after, when he moves forward on his strategy to form a new conservative party by uniting the PCs with the Wildrose.

I could be wrong about Kenney winning, of course, but nobody really thinks Kenney can lose. Oh, the anti-Kenney forces have various long-shot scenarios where he won’t win.

Those storylines involve numerous complacent Kenney supporters staying home to rob him of a majority, remorseful supporters jumping ship last-minute to PC-stalwart candidate Richard Starke or, more likely, an asteroid hitting the Calgary convention centre.

The numbers all seem to be in Kenney’s favour. He’s happy to go over them with you, too, especially if you’re a skeptical columnist. He and I met for breakfast Friday morning. (I was dying for bacon and eggs, but he ordered oatmeal, which left me no choice but to do him one better by ordering granola.)

As if to prove he’s also part calculator, he proceeded over breakfast to give me a detailed rundown of the memberships sold by the party the past two years, the memberships sold by his campaign the past eight months and a breakdown of the delegates for the convention.

He figures he has 80 per cent of the delegates chosen at constituency meetings since the race began last October — plus up to three-quarters of “super delegates,” including former MLAs.

That doesn’t mean he expects to win 75 to 80 per cent of the total vote — but it does sound like he easily has enough for a first-ballot victory.

“Nothing is decided until the votes are cast,” he said. “We’re going to stay humble and work hard. Our supporters have to show up, but we’re feeling confident.” What happens the day after the convention? “If I have the honour of getting a mandate on the 18th, I would meet with the PC board on the 19th and discuss the way forward,” he said.

That’s going to be an interesting meeting, to say the least, considering some members of the PC board of directors had wanted to hold an emergency meeting recently to discuss booting Kenney from the race. They’re understandably upset, because his goal is to pull the plug on the party to make way for a merger with the Wildrose.

(Kenney makes it clear during our discussion that he takes umbrage at people — including me — saying he wants to destroy the PC party. He says he is “reconstituting” the two halves of Alberta’s big-tent PC party that split a decade ago into “progressive” PCs and the Wildrose.)

Anyway, Kenney already has plans for the 20th: “I would hope to meet with Brian Jean early that week to discuss the process and framework for negotiations between the two parties leading to a draft unity agreement, which could then be submitted to the membership for ratification.”

That will be an interesting meeting, too. Jean has said he’s in favour of uniting the right, but, unlike Kenney, he wants to do it under the Wildrose umbrella with a new name. Jean will be asking his members to support that plan at their annual general meeting expected in late June.

So, it seems that even if Kenney wins the leadership March 18, and bulldozes the PC board March 19, he might have to wait until the summer to know if his particular plan to form a new conservative party can move ahead.

That’s barring an asteroid hit in two weeks.

It does sound like he easily has enough for a first-ballot victory.