Like old times: Tories sweep Calgary, Liberals rein in East
Liberals and NDP take it on chin as Tory candidates win by increased percentage
Byelection victories, even big ones, do not always predict glory for a party or a government.
The Alberta PCs led by Jim Prentice won all four byelections in Edmonton and Calgary in the fall of 2014. In spring of 2015, they lost the general election to the NDP.
So, Monday’s federal results don’t mean the end of the provincial NDP, or even the eventual expulsion of federal Liberals from Alberta.
They sure were impressive, though. Wow. The Conservatives won 71.5 per cent of the vote in Calgary Heritage and 77.2 per cent in Calgary Midnapore.
They did it with a pair of candidates, Bob Benzen and Stephanie Kusie, unknown to the general public.
Benzen won the riding long held by former prime minister Stephen Harper, and by a much bigger margin.
Harper himself captured “only” 63.7 per cent of the Heritage vote in 2015. And new PC Leader Jason Kenney, then a senior minister, took 66.7 per cent in Midnapore.
The Conservatives probably benefited from a certain remorse about what happened to Harper. That was magnified by a fierce will among Conservative organizers to atone for any failings of 2015. They captured the vast majority of the 30 per cent of eligible voters who came to the polls.
Also, Conservatives are in opposition amid the fiercest Alberta recession in 30 years. Governments usually get a byelection boot in hard times.
Kenney was ecstatic on Twitter. “Congrats to Stephanie Kusie on a huge wing with +75% of the vote in Calgary Midnapore! ” he said. “She’s a big improvement over the riding’s last MP!”
Wildrose Leader Brian Jean, another former Harper MP, offered “big congratulations” to the newcomers.
Kenney often uses his earlier vote totals in Midnapore as evidence that a united provincial conservative party will overwhelm the NDP.
He said the federal Conservatives got more votes in 2015 than the combined total of the Alberta PCs and Wildrose in the provincial election. Monday’s results make that case even stronger.
As for the federal Liberals and the provincial NDP, they can only hope that nothing about these byelections escapes to the larger political stage.
The Liberals got a dismal 21.7 per cent of the vote in Heritage, and 17 per cent in Midnapore. Both counts were down substantially from 2015.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put some of his own political capital on the line when he came to campaign in Calgary. Obviously, it didn’t give his candidates much of a boost.
Trudeau’s presence was equally ineffectual when he campaigned in a Medicine Hat byelection last October. He drew a huge crowd, but his candidate got thumped by Conservative Glen Motz.
By now, he might recall his father Pierre’s famous exchange with an Alberta crowd during a federal election campaign.
Pierre Trudeau: “You love me, don’t you?” Crowd: “Yeesss!” Trudeau: “But you’ll never vote for me, will you?” Crowd: “Noooo!” The federal NDP was virtually absent from the Monday scoreboard. The party’s candidates won 2.9 per cent of the vote in Heritage and 2.5 per cent in Midnapore.
In Ontario and Quebec, meanwhile, the Liberals handily won the other three byelections held Monday.
Conservative dominance here, Liberal victory there.
It’s an eerie snapshot of the Trudeau Canada 1.0, the version that didn’t work out so well for Alberta.