Dark clouds linger over Alberta

Trump’s actions, investment worries weigh on oilpatch

As weeks go this past one was pretty darn bleak in Calgary. No, not the lousy weather, although that didn’t improve the mood, but rather the figurative dark clouds again encircling our city.

Now we’re used to life’s ups and downs here on the high northern plain but the last seven days have had a particularly ominous feel — one threatening to extinguish what little pale light we’ve glimpsed lately, after an economic downturn that’s dragged on and on.

It’s hard to know where to begin, a bit like taking the garbage out in Calgary and seeing a veritable rainbow of bins.

So let’s start with the most worrying issue of all — the recent ravings, actions and threats emanating from the Tweeter-in-Chief, who is sort of in charge of the country south of us.

Given the flipping and flopping, the namecalling and bravado, along with the bully boy tactics so favoured by this current U.S. president, it’s dangerous to even latch onto any specific policy involving our country because, by the time you type the words, it’s likely changed.

Still, we’ve seen a 20-per-cent-plus tariff slapped onto softwood lumber, all sorts of threats against the Canadian dairy industry, as well as on-off warnings about tearing up NAFTA and, most ominously, vague mentions of how our energy exports are somehow ripping off the poor souls south of the 49th parallel. And yes, I know this is the same person who approved the Keystone XL pipeline, but if a week is a long time in politics for some, then 20 minutes is an eternity for this fellow.

Although it makes no economic sense for the U.S. to impose tariffs on Canadian oil, such disturbing musings only make a bad situation worse when it comes to possible future investment in Alberta’s energy industry.

Meanwhile, our provincial government says it’s trying to soothe these waters by talking to suitable ‘stakeholders’ in the U.S. — makes it sound like chatting up Tony Soprano after he’s just loaded his plate from the barbecue.

Perhaps Premier Notley might now realize that causing future uncertainty in a high investment business such as oilsands extraction is the worst thing politicians can do. Imposing extra costs with carbon taxes doesn’t help. No wonder so many multi-nationals have picked up sticks and are kissing Alberta farewell. This endless Trump bluster will make that worse. Who in their right mind is going to sink a few billion into our province right now?

It certainly won’t be the Chinese, despite the premier’s trade mission there last week. She only needed to go as far as Toronto to learn the Chinese attitude to investment these days.

“To be honest, Chinese enterprises buying Canadian oilsands enterprises are actually incurring a loss. Canadian oilsands is not competitive given the current international oil price. Even if Canadians did not disapprove of China’s investment in the oilsands industry, I do not believe that Chinese enterprises would still be interested in this,” China’s ambassador Lu Shaye told the Canada China Business Council.

Meanwhile here we sit, borrowing over $10 billion a year to keep the lights on while hoping oil prices rise, though they seem stuck at $50 a barrel. Even if they do, our only market is southward, where the Lord of The Deal is waiting. Now this is hardly just the current provincial government’s fault, though it is their particular problem. As Canadians and Albertans, we’ve lazily allowed ourselves to be too dependent upon one market, aided by smallminded attitudes across this country that have prevented building out pipeline infrastructure that could get our most valuable commodity to tidewater and thus access to world markets.

Oh boy, this is some corner we’ve boxed ourselves into.

Who in their right mind is going to sink a few billion into our province right now?