AN EARLY ELECTION?
Braid: Unlikely but possible
The New Democrats wouldn’t dare. Or would they?
The disastrous early election call in 2015 put a stake in the heart of the Progressive Conservative regime.
So you’d think that the New Democrats would not hint at, tinker with, or even whisper about calling an election outside the mandated date for the next one, between March 1 and May 31, 2019.
But that’s exactly what happened in the legislature Monday.
Asked if the government would stick to the law, Deputy Premier Sarah Hoffman waffled.
Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt started it when he said:
“Even though most Albertans would love a chance to vote right now, the law is the law. Will the premier commit right now, unequivocally, that she will respect our fixed election date legislation and not call an early election before 2019?”
Hoffman took the question for Premier Rachel Notley, who was absent.
“The question is really exciting, especially coming from somebody who is such a close dance partner with the party that called the last election a year early, so I have to say that we certainly do not intend to call the election early,” Hoffman said.
“We have dates in line in the legislation. The question is coming from nowhere, so to be honest, I’m not prepared to answer at this time.”
She has it both ways. The NDP does not “intend” to call early. She doesn’t say the government absolutely will not. Then she says she’s not prepared to answer, since the question comes out of the blue. Fildebrandt pressed on. “This all gives me the impression that the NDP are terrified of facing a single, united conservative party in the next election,” he said. “Will the premier commit unequivocally that she will stick to the fixed election date and not delay the election until 2020?”
That last part is a red herring. The election couldn’t be called after four years without a change in the law. An early election, however, is entirely legal, even if the public doesn’t like it.
What really spooks conservatives is the thought of an election before the conservative merger is sorted out.
But Wildrose Leader Brian Jean wants one right after a new leader is chosen.
Once again appearing to disagree with Fildebrandt, he said Tuesday, “we would truly like an election as soon as possible.”
The government shouldn’t take advantage during conservative negotiations, he added, “but I certainly hope they go immediately after any kind of unity discussions and agreement comes into place, and we have a new leader. I think that’s the fairest way to do it.”
Wildrose appears to be scolding the New Democrats for thinking about an early election, and then hoping they do it.
During the short life of the fixed-term law, there have been two elections.
The 2012 vote was held in the proper three-month period. The quixotic 2015 election came a year early. A 50-50 record is not the best for a law that’s only been in force since December 2011, shortly after ex-PC premier Alison Redford took office.
Such laws are essentially bogus anyway because they self-limit the authority of the legislature and government. They will always be ignored or changed in the face of political necessity. The opposition will want one early or on time, depending on the polls. The New Democrats now face a scenario both troubling and tempting. With the conservative vote split, they have a decent chance of winning. If support moves to a united opposition party, the odds will tilt sharply away from the NDP.
The Prentice precedent isn’t very promising for the government, that’s for sure. Notley would have a lot of explaining to do.
But if the choice is between certain loss and possible victory, don’t imagine that the NDP would hesitate for a heartbeat.
What really spooks conservatives is the thought of an election before the conservative merger is sorted out. Don Braid