What happens to moderate Conservatives?

Political landscape can shift with a united right, Dennis Anderson writes

The end of the “progressive” Conservative Party in Alberta, caused by possibly uniting with the Wildrose party to form the United Conservative Party, is reminiscent of a similar demise of the “Progressive” Conservative party nationally.

Both did this to unite two parties and both seem likely to have their policies now moving away from much of the moderate approaches the progressives in these parties had in place in years gone by.

In Alberta, this also seems to end the existence of any party with moderate intentions that could be successful in the coming provincial election. Even federally, the success of the Liberals, in part, may have been a delayed indication of the federal Conservatives’ move further to the right.

Historically, Alberta’s PC party advocated for an economic-management approach to government while at the same time supporting public commitments to social issues to improve the lives of citizens.

Peter Lougheed, Don Getty, Ed Stelmach and, more recently, Alison Redford led this joint approach to governance. Nationally, leaders such as Joe Clark had the same approach.

Today, citizens in Alberta seem to have only the choice of the left-wing party, the NDP or the newly announced and evolving United Conservative Party. Ironically, the provincial Liberals have been historically unable to develop a major position in politics except for one time in the past.

Even with a dedicated and well-meaning acting leader, Dr. David Swann, the party is said to have not much more than 250 members involved in their two-person leadership race that ended with the election of David Khan in June.

The only other possibility for a moderate government would seem to be electing the Alberta Party. They have one member in the Legislative Assembly.

Their win would be even more of a surprise than the last election that saw the end of 40 four years of PC rule and the majority-government election of the NDP, which had never been elected before in Alberta.

Historically, a similar dramatic change took place in 1971 when the Peter Lougheed-led Progressive Conservatives took over from the long-standing Social Credit government.

That change was not, however, seen as a substantially different political philosophy.

Given what seems to be a more moderate view of governance in the general public, it is ironic that the province seems to be given the choice of extremes. The NDP, with much union control and commitments to government support of the public and control of industry, and the new United Conservative Party, dedicated to economic development and evolution.

If one believes the polls are correct in determining the results of the next election, the United Conservatives will easily win and the NDP will lose the only government it has held in this province.

However, the world has changed. While elections could once be predicted on the basis of how families had voted before; that no longer seem to be the case.

Social media helps to make it unsure what will happen even the day before an election. This was true with the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s majority win.

In Alberta, the current economy would be a challenge for any government.

If the economy improves, so might the results of the election. Premier Rachel Notley is showing some commitment to oil development and the province’s economic needs. This may change some predicted voting patterns.

Given the emotional effects of social media on voting, even the Alberta Party could have a chance. Predictions are no longer likely to indicate results.

Perhaps what seems to be a likely victory for the United Conservative Party may not take place. It also may be that the move to the right and away from a historical balance will be seen as a trend that does not represent all public needs.

Dennis Anderson was a Progressive Conservative MLA and cabinet minister for 14 years.