Census signals easing recession

Mayor calls population rise to 1.25M a sign of recovery

Mayor Naheed Nenshi believes the city’s latest census demonstrates the economy is slowly recovering, with data revealing slightly more people moved to Calgary last year than departed, following a population decline in 2016.

The 2017 census pegs Calgary’s population at 1.25 million, an increase of 11,166 people or just under one per cent from the previous year — a stark difference from the record-setting population increases seen in boom years.

New births are mainly behind the bump in residents, with a natural increase (more births than deaths) of 10,192.

The rest of the population jump is due to the fact 974 more people moved to Calgary than packed their bags and left over a 12-month span, the equivalent of two or three people a day.

“On the net migration number, it absolutely is showing the signs of the beginning of a recovery because people are optimistic about moving here,” the mayor said.

Adam Legge, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said while businesses in Calgary feel the rock bottom of the downturn is over, the numbers show the road to recovery won’t be easy or anything like previous economic swings.

“What I think the (census) numbers tell us is while there is some sense of stability and optimism, we have to temper that with the notion that this is going to be a long and slow recovery out of the recession,” Legge said.

“A 0.9 per cent population growth rate is virtually flat … we have to orient ourselves to thinking that this is going to be probably a decade before we can really say we’re out of the woods.”

The small migration increase comes after years of record-setting growth abruptly halted in 2016. The economic downturn spurred job losses and a negative net migration of 6,500 people last year, bucking an almost annual trend of massive positive net migration dating back to the late 1980s.

“We now have seen about 1,000 people net moving to Calgary this year,” Nenshi said. “Last year we lost about 6,500 people.”

By contrast, 24,909 more people migrated to Calgary than left in 2015 — a year that saw the city’s population increase by 35,721 people.

“In the past, we were used to these giant, giant increases,” Nenshi said, noting the “end to the relentless pressure,” isn’t a bad thing.

“This is an opportunity for us to take a breather,” he said. “What it does is it gives us a chance to catch up.”

Nenshi said that during boom years, the city struggled to keep up with infrastructure demands, and the recent slow down in population growth has provided opportunities to boost the economy by building needed infrastructure while also saving hundreds of millions of dollars on the city’s operating budget by forgoing growth in terms of city staff.

The 2017 census data, which covers the period from April 2016 to April 2017, reveals the population of several neighbourhoods across the city increased, both in new communities on the city’s fringe and established neighbourhoods in the core.

“For a long time, so much of our infrastructure was focused on the outskirts of the city, making it easier to live there and making it harder to live in established neighbourhoods, and I think we have a much better balance now,” Nenshi said.

The number of vacant homes across Calgary increased by 2,710 to 23,553 vacant dwellings, while the number of homes under construction decreased from 9,508 in 2016 to 6,537.

Calgary’s fastest growing community this year was Auburn Bay, with a population increase of 1,870 new residents, followed by Evanston (1,621 increase), Legacy (1,560 increase), Nolan Hill (1,556 increase), Skyview Ranch (1,465 increase), Mahogany (1,444 increase), the Beltline (1,261 increase) and Redstone (1,081 increase).

Ward 12 Coun. Shane Keating said his ward, which includes the rapidly growing communities of Auburn Bay and Mahogany, has long struggled to keep up with the city’s intense growth.

“There wasn’t a library, there wasn’t a swimming pool. … There wasn’t anything in that area for (more than 100,000) people,” he said.

Only now are citizens in the deep southeast finally getting basic amenities such as recreation centres and transit, said Keating, noting substantial investment has recently been put in the area “to bring it up to the calibre of the rest of the city.”

There wasn’t a library, there wasn’t a swimming pool. … There wasn’t anything in that area for (more than 100,000) people.