BRIAN JEAN IN FRONT

UCP would win with him: poll

Former Wildrose Party boss Brian Jean has edged past his United Conservative Party leadership opponents as the one with the best chance of toppling Alberta’s ruling NDP, a Mainstreet Research poll has found.

The Postmedia-commissioned survey, which queried 2,100 Albertans July 27-28, days after the new right-wing party was forged, suggested any of the four current leadership hopefuls — Jean, former Progressive Conservative leader Jason Kenney, MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary lawyer Doug Schweitzer — would cruise to a likely majority government were an election held today.

However, the poll suggests Jean, who became leader of a fractured Wildrose Party in 2015 just two months before the provincial election that brought Premier Rachel Notley’s NDP to power, would appeal to more Alberta voters still on the fence about where they’ll cast their ballot than any of his peers.

“Basically any candidate we would throw in the mix is getting a majority,” said Mainstreet president Quito Maggi.

“But with Jean’s name in the mix, the UCP certainly performs the best. His main effect is on the undecideds because of their familiarity with who he is.”

For decided voters or those leaning in a certain political direction, a Jean-led UCP would win 59 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for the governing NDP. Among all decided voters, Jean would still sweep to victory with 48 per cent versus the NDP’s 21 per cent, though another 21 per cent remain undecided.

Kenney, who last year stepped down from his seat as a Calgary MP to run for the leadership of Alberta’s Tories on a platform of uniting the province’s right-wing parties, has become a more polarizing figure, with 56 per cent of decided and leaning voters choosing him compared to 30 per cent for the NDP. For decided voters, however, the NDP see their support rise to 22 per cent while Kenney’s slides to 41 per cent, leaving a full 28 per cent unsure of who they’ll vote for.

“They used to say about (former Conservative prime minister) Stephen Harper, ‘People who like him, like him a lot, and people who don’t like him, don’t like him a lot.’ Jason Kenney is very much like Stephen Harper in that way,” said Maggi, noting the PC leadership contest and the formation of the UCP have seen his favourability scores plunge through the fractious campaigns.

“Because he’s been so polarizing, he’s going to have an uphill battle, and not only in the leadership contest.”

Fildebrandt and Schweitzer also boast sterling numbers in the poll, earning 54 per cent and 52 per cent support from decided and leaning voters, respectively, versus 30 per cent and 31 per cent for the NDP.

While the numbers seem to favour Jean, Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said discounting Kenney when he’s within the poll’s margin of error would be a mistake as he’s still likely the candidate to beat.

“Kenney is a master organizer and tireless campaigner — he’s the machine politician par excellence,” he said.

The Mainstreet poll, collected via land line and cellular phone, is considered accurate within 2.14 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.