Social media analysis shows Nenshi leading on Twitter front

Traffic spiked after his comment about racist influences entering campaign

If the election were based on Twitter traffic, Naheed Nenshi would have already won it by a landslide, says a polling firm.

Activity surrounding Nenshi’s Twitter account is nearly triple that coming from rival Bill Smith’s tweets, said Joseph Angolano, vice-president of analytics for Mainstreet Research.

From Oct. 2 to 12, Nenshi’s tweeting recorded 17,276 responses versus 6,392 for challenger Smith, said Angolano.

“The mayor’s supporters have always been a younger demographic and it’s not surprising to see his supporters following social media more,” he said.

“Twitter’s clearly being used by the Nenshi campaign as an absolute battlefront and his supporters must think it’s important; Smith, less so.”

In the 2010 election that vaulted Nenshi to the mayor’s chair, social media was considered a crucial tool used by his campaign in what was considered an unlikely victory. And sure enough, on Friday, Nenshi implored possible supporters at one campaign stop in the Ramsay area to aid his cause a certain way.

“Use every single social media channel you’ve got and get out the vote,” said the mayor.

Based on the hashtag #yycvote, the sentiments from Nenshi’s tweets tend to be slightly more positive than those from Smith’s campaign, said Angolano.

But Twitter traffic based on the mayor’s campaign spiked by 12 per cent toward the negative on Oct. 9, following the video of the mayor warning of racist and hateful influences plaguing the race.

A lot of that was directed against Nenshi, said Angolano.

“There are peaks and valleys when a candidate starts taking a more negative tone and people are saying more negative things,” he said.

The same principle applied in response to a controversy over the Smith team using United Conservative Party membership lists to target voters by email last weekend, said Angolano. “But the biggest peak was when Smith’s Green Line rethink comments happened Oct. 4,” said Angolano.

In both campaigns, positive sentiments always outweighed the negative by about two to one, which is hardly surprising, he said.

“This is the time when supporters are going to try to get their message out about promises kept, the good things about their candidate,” said Angolano.

Word clouds from the candidates’ tweets tended to reflect Calgarians’ perceptions of the campaign and should surprise few, said Angolano.

In the Nenshi realm, the words “best, excited, racism, Muslim” are prolific, while the next most common words used arise from the Flames arena debate.

With Smith, whether they’re directed at him or Nenshi, it’s “email” and “list,” along with “worried, koolaid and arrogant.”

The biggest peak was when Smith’s Green Line rethink comments happened Oct. 4.