SMITH’S CONTENTION TAXES UP BY 51% IS CERTAINLY A STRETCH

Meanwhile, trolls are trying to discredit sensible policies touted by Students Count

Numbers shift like tumbling dice in this wildly emotional civic election campaign.

Mayor Naheed Nenshi is ahead. Wait! Another poll has him behind.

Bill Smith is gaining by one margin, or losing ground by some other.

But there is one constant number: 51 per cent. That’s the amount Smith claims property taxes have risen since Nenshi took office in 2010.

The third sentence of the challenger’s platform says: “In the past 7 years, we’ve seen our property taxes skyrocket by 51 per cent.”

This has been widely reported and repeated.

The impact on Monday’s voting could be profound.

Property taxes are by far the hottest issue of the campaign.

And most people motivated by it seem to be backing Smith.

But what if the number is wrong?

Nenshi’s campaigners say it is, and they back their case with far more evidence than Smith offers for his.

But that number ran wild. From the cynical perspective, putting it out there was a brilliant campaign move by the Smith team.

There have been tax hikes, of course. In a recession they’ve made many people angry enough to believe the worst.

The worst, however, appears to be nowhere near 51 per cent.

The original claim was based not on individual tax hikes, but on the growth in total property tax revenue collected by the city.

The residential property tax take increased nearly 55 per cent from 2010 to 2017.

Property tax on business climbed almost 75 per cent.

That was largely new money. It came from migrants buying homes, and the creation or expansion of businesses.

But for individual homeowners, the blended provincial/city property tax went up 14.7 per cent over that period.

On the business side, the blended tax receipts grew by 13.7 per cent.

Those hikes are not trivial. They anger many people.

But it’s entirely wrong to say the average Calgarians pays 51 per cent more now than in 2010.

The biggest single problem facing Calgary today is how to replace the lost tax revenue from the downtown towers. It fell 50 per cent because of the recession, Nenshi said Friday.

For now, the city is using reserve funds to hold down residential tax. On the commercial side, the old business tax (not based on property) is being phased out.

But the tax bubble will burst soon enough. City hall will either have to raise taxes again, or sharply cut spending.

That’s the real tax crisis that has barely been discussed in the campaign.

There’s another campaign misconception, fuelled by trolls trying to discredit the Students Count slate running for the Calgary Board of Education.

Many people believe the five candidates under this banner are social conservatives, the implication being that they’d oppose such things as LGBTQ rights and gay-straight alliances.

Jason Kenney added to that impression when he endorsed the slate, without asking the candidates.

Lisa Davis, who spearheads this effort, says only three of the candidates are conservatives, and they’re progressive. The others, also moderate, aren’t aligned.

She insists that none of them would bring a social conservative agenda to the board.

Her own view is that LGBTQ policy is one of the few things the CBE does right.

Students Count supports reforming the math program; moving money from lavish administration to the classroom; restoring report cards; naming an ombudsman to resolve bullying disputes; and banning corporate or union donations from trustee campaigns.

I’m not usually a fan of slates in civic elections.

They tend to be ideological wedges for parties. Voters have generally rejected them.

But these Students Count people, all with strong career records, seem goal-focused and determined to shake up the most sclerotic public institution in Alberta.

A lone activist trustee can’t do it — the hounding of former trustee Sheila Taylor proved that.

The CBE itself once threatened her with lawsuits for speaking her mind.

No, this job needs a crowd that can stand up to the CBE administration and board veterans.

Students Count deserves a look, not a shaming.