Japan raises prospect of TPP without Canada
PM a no-show at summit meeting in November
TOK YO • Though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau balked at finalizing the Trans-Pacific Partnership last month, Japanese officials say the other countries in the trade deal could decide to push ahead without Canada.
In interviews Monday, officials from Japan’s foreign affairs ministry confirmed that if all the other countries involved in TPP talks agree on a text, there’s nothing stopping them from going ahead without Canada and letting the Canadians accede whenever they are ready.
“It would be called TPP 10,” quipped one official.
The talks originally included 12 Pacific nations, but in January U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from negotiations, and the revised deal has become known as TPP 11. Trudeau’s absence from a meeting between heads of government at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in November gave other countries the impression of an “unpredictable situation” with Canada, the official said, adding that it’s natural for them to consider what might be possible without Trudeau signing on. (The Japanese officials quoted in this story were not authorized to speak on the record.)
The Liberal government has concerns about the agreement — as a concession to Canada, it has been renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership — including the protection it affords Canadian cultural industries and the auto industry.
Joseph Pickerill, a spokesman for Canada’s trade minister, François-Philippe Champagne, told the Post in an email countries have agreed that whenever six out of 11 countries ratify the original TPP, the CPTPP — which modifies the existing agreement rather than rewriting it — will come into force among ratified members “while others continue to work through issues.” At present, Japan, Australia and New Zealand have ratified the deal. “So this could all come together at the same time, in rapid succession or any other computation or sequence. That has always been the case,” he said.
Meanwhile, in an interview in Tokyo Monday, Japanese officials detailed their account of Trudeau’s APEC no-show, which led to accusations he had “sabotaged” the deal.
According to Japanese officials, at 1:15 p.m. on Nov. 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe walked into a bilateral meeting with Trudeau expecting they’d be on the same page about moving ahead with the deal. “All morning, there were no sounds from the Canadian side saying they weren’t on board,” an official told the Post.
But Trudeau told Abe he wasn’t ready. “It was a surprise,” and “very unusual,” according to the official. The Japanese trade minister was called in and explained the details of encounters with his Canadian counterpart, Champagne — discussions that had apparently given him the impression Canada was ready to move forward.
Meanwhile, nine other heads of government were waiting around a table for a meeting that was supposed to have started at 1:45 p.m. Unlike with the original TPP, which was agreed at a ministerial level, APEC co-chairs felt that having heads of government announce an agreement would send a stronger message internationally. Instead, Japanese officials said, this had a “negative effect.”
Abe “rushed” to join the other leaders after his meeting with Trudeau ran late, the official said, then had to explain to them that Trudeau wasn’t showing up. This was “also very unusual.”
Later the same evening Champagne and other countries’ trade ministers agreed on what the Japanese are calling an “agreement in principle” and the Canadians are calling a “framework.” A cautious statement from Global Affairs Canada announced progress had been made but warned Canada “will not be rushed into an agreement that is not in the interest of Canada.”
Part of the new framework included the new name, which the Japanese official said was to make the Canadians “feel comfortable.” The Japanese preferred to retain as much of the original TPP as possible. “The less change is better,” said the official, “including the title.”
But Canada is still reluctant, despite having been eager for the deal’s resurrection earlier this year — a change of position that the official called “very mysterious” but which the Japanese suspect has a lot to do with the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
A meeting is being planned for January, at which chief negotiators are expected to finalize the actual text of the CPTPP. It is expected to be relatively short, based on seven articles agreed upon in Vietnam. Some ministers will likely hold concurrent bilateral meetings.
The Australians were especially miffed by Trudeau’s actions in Vietnam, their officials telling travelling press at the time that Canada was “sabotaging” the deal.
THE LESS CHANGE (IN THE TRANS-PACIFIC DEAL) IS BETTER ... INCLUDING THE TITLE.