There’s reason to believe pipeline will forge ahead

It’s the opponents to project who are trailing behind

Perhaps I’ve set the bar too low when it comes to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and pipelines, but each day that passes, when the answer to Trans Mountain’s expansion is still “yes,” it’s a good day.

As potentially problematic as the events of last week might yet prove to be, we at least managed to avoid the doomsday scenario of Trudeau acquiescing to B.C.’s sabre rattling and deciding that maybe the Trans Mountain pipeline project wasn’t such a good idea after all.

And for all the talk that Trudeau needs to “do” something, or at least detail what he might do, at this point, it’s not unreasonable for the prime minister to reiterate his position.

For example, in the face of angry and noisy protesters at a town-hall meeting Friday in Nanaimo, B.C., Trudeau declared that, “It is in the national interest to move forward with the Kinder Morgan (pipeline) and we will be moving forward with the Kinder Morgan pipeline.”

Trudeau might often come across as a reluctant warrior for this or any other pipeline, and he has yet to shed his propensity for vapid platitudes. In this case, however, his statement serves as a fairly direct rebuke of B.C.’s plans.

One might wonder how exactly Trudeau intends to “move forward” with the pipeline, and it’s not unreasonable to ask the government what it’s prepared to do or how far it’s prepared to go.

However, the more relevant question might be how the B.C. government expects to supersede the jurisdiction and authority of the federal government.

To recap: The B.C. government announced last week its intention to look into restrictions on any new shipments of bitumen through that province until more spill-response studies could be done.

It is, as Mayor Naheed Nenshi described it, “political pandering of the worst kind.” Furthermore, as Nenshi correctly noted, the issues that B.C. Premier John Horgan supposedly wants to address were already addressed in the National Energy Board review of the project.

Moreover, it’s not clear that B.C. has any authority to do any of this. If, for example, we got shovels in the ground tomorrow on this pipeline, Horgan could wave around his policy all he wants, but it might not do anything more than cause a minor breeze.

Unfortunately, of course, shovels won’t be in the ground likely even this year. There is already uncertainty around this project, and the mere possibility that Horgan’s gambit could cause even more uncertainty is cause for concern.

Political uncertainty can mean financial consequences. We’re leaving money on the table every day that we fail to add additional pipeline capacity, and we’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet for new investment, either.

But we always knew that the pipeline would face opposition. We always knew that the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Green party were opposed to it, not to mention the various environmental activists. We knew they’d do whatever they could to block the project or delay it enough so that the company would throw in the towel.

The best we can hope for is that the process is meaningful enough so as to withstand the inevitable court challenges. It still looks good on that count. We also need as broad a coalition as possible behind the project. Between the Alberta NDP, the Alberta United Conservative Party, the Saskatchewan Party, the federal Liberals and the federal Conservatives (not to mention the B.C. Liberals), it’s as big a pro-Trans Mountain tent as you could ask for.

Despite the ongoing finger pointing, none of those parties has flipped to the other side.

But above all, we still have federal approval of the pipeline. It’s still a close game that could go either way, but pipeline opponents are the ones who are trailing. For the time being, there is still cause for optimism.

We’re leaving money on the table every day we fail to add additional pipeline capacity.