All signs point to growth in province but uncertainty lingers, ATB reports

Alberta’s economy is poised for growth in 2018, but a stubbornly high unemployment rate is adding to a lingering uncertainty, ATB Financial says.

On Thursday, the Crown corporation released its first Alberta Economic Outlook report of 2018, detailing five key findings:

U.S. oil prices have been stronger this year.

The price for Alberta’s heavy crude has not enjoyed the same increase, which has widened the differential.

Alberta will continue to see job creation in 2018, but the unemployment rate will comedownonly gradually.

Housing prices will improve modestly over last year — housing starts will be unchanged or slightly lower.

Net inter-provincial migration should return to positive in 2018.

“There are threats beyond our control that add uncertainty to our economy including NAFTA negotiations and the opposition to pipeline expansion,” ATB Financial chief economist Todd Hirsch said in a news release.

“Household debt levels are also at record levels, and borrowing costs are rising. As well, the global economy may be shifting into another period of financial and market volatility,” the release continued.

According to the report, after averaging 7.9 per cent in 2017, Alberta’s unemployment rate is expected to average 6.8 per cent this

year and fall to 6.4 per cent in 2019.

Wages have grown, too, with Albertans averaging a weekly wage of $1,144 compared to $988 nationally.

Oil and gas workers remain the highest paid workers in any sector with an average weekly wage of $2,219.

ATB is predicting 2.8 per cent GDP growth this year, and 2.2 per cent growth in 2019.

“We saw growth return to the province last year and almost every economic indicator points to July of 2016 as the pit of the recession,” said Hirsch.

“That was 19 months ago. It is time for Albertans to reorient our language and thinking away from the recession and focus on growth.”