Trudeau’s trip to india helps sink liberals in polls

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, the standard repository of all knowledge and wisdom in Douglas Adams’ cult novel of the same name, had the words “Don’t Panic” inscribed in large, friendly letters on its cover.

Justin Trudeau should perhaps distribute a facsimile to his MPs, after a string of recent polls that suggest a sea change in public opinion.

On Wednesday Abacus Data released a huge poll of 4,023 Canadians that found Liberal support has dipped to 36 per cent, the lowest the company has measured since the 2015 election. The Conservatives were on 33 per cent, followed by the NDP on 18 per cent. Most of the Liberals slippage occurred in Ontario and, given the static impressions of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, it suggests the Liberal dip in support was self-inflicted — and linked to the Prime Minister’s trip to India.

The most telling statistic was the graph tracking Trudeau’s personal popularity, which has dipped from 47 per cent to 39 per cent in the last month, just as negative impressions have grown from 31 per cent to 38 per cent. In other words, as many people who have a positive view of Trudeau have a negative view.

That things could change so dramatically illustrates the perils of hitching a government’s wagon to a star prime minister.

In the Westminster system, party loyalties are traditionally more important than leaders when it comes to winning elections but the Liberals have taken presidential-style politics to new levels, making the leader synonymous with the party brand. At the height of Trudeau’s popularity it bolstered that brand, but we may now be seeing the inverse.

The Abacus polling makes it pretty clear that the catalyst is Trudeau’s ill-starred trip to India — his rating on how he has represented Canada internationally has dropped 16 points since October 2017, while the assessment of how he has handled other issues has been fairly constant.

But it takes more than a bad bhangra-dancing blunder to transition from lionized to ludicrous. It suggests something is going on that the polling hasn’t yet identified clearly.

Bruce Anderson, the Abacus chairman and a Canadian polling veteran, said he has noticed a “rising frustration” with the cost of living that is particularly acute in large cities, where the cost of housing has become a pain point.

“It seems especially noticeable for young people who are either rent- or mortgage-stressed, and who find it limiting their ability to enjoy other things in life,” he said.

This has not yet manifested itself in their political choices, but he noted it could have major implications for policies like carbon taxation and pharmacare.

The government appears to be alive to the prospect that its relentless proselytizing on progressive issues like gender and the environment has tried the patience of people who voted Liberal in 2015, but who now feel their wages are stagnating while their expenses are snowballing, with the government not doing much to help.

The new Canada Workers Benefit in the federal budget — an extra $1 billion in tax credits aimed at supplementing the earnings of lowincome workers — was an attempt to reconnect the Liberals with those people who have aspirations to make their own way in life and keep more of their income.

It’s too early to say whether that helps, or whether the recent dip in popularity is a momentary blip or a longterm change in attitudes.

Seasoned Liberals won’t panic until support falls below 30 per cent in the polls.

But if the Prime Minister maintains his current rate of unforced errors, that day may not be too far distant.