TRUDEAU TUMBLES IN THE POLLS.
Less popular than Harper at same point
Angus Reid is the latest polling company to find Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity in precipitous decline in the wake of his wide- ly criticized trip to India.
Trudeau’s net approval rating of -16 is well below Stephen Harper’s rating of -1 at a similar point in his tenure. Fifty-six per cent of respondents say they disapprove of Trudeau at his government’s 29-month mark, while 40 per cent say they approve. At Harper’s 28-month mark, 47 per cent disapproved while 46 per cent approved.
An accompanying report from Angus Reid points to the India trip, where the government was criticized for the presence of a con- victed attempted murderer at a prime ministerial event, and a recent report from the ethics commissioner on Trudeau’s trip to the Aga Khan’s private island, as likely sources of the decline.
Angus Reid had to go back to Brian Mulroney in 1988 to find a prime minister with approval numbers as low as Trudeau’s at this point in their first term. Sixty-two per cent disapproved and 27 per cent approved of Mulroney at the 30-month mark of his first term.
Trudeau’s Liberals can take some solace from the fact Mulroney went on to win another majority the following year, although with a reduced seat count, in an election campaign centring on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trudeau’s government is currently engaged in talks to renegotiate NAFTA with Donald Trump’s U.S. administration and Mexico.
The only prime minister in recent memory who enjoyed a positive net approval rating at this point in his tenure was Jean Chrétien, with a +19 approval. Fifty-four per cent of respondents approved of Chretien in 1996.
It’s not all bad news for the Liberals, though. The Angus Reid poll also finds that young people are still solidly in Trudeau’s corner and that his electoral base is still relatively strong.
“The party remains either in the lead or competitive in vote-rich urban centres, where a red surge pushed the Liberals to a 2015 majority,” the report reads.
Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives seem to gain the most from the Liberal declines, with 33 per cent of respondent saying they would vote for the Tories if a federal election were held tomorrow. Twenty-five per cent said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.
Scheer is the only national leader with a positive net approval rating, although 28 per cent of respondents are still “not sure” how they feel about the Conservative leader.
Angus Reid also points out that Canadians aren’t “locked-in” to any of these choices though, with 64 per cent saying they are only somewhat certain or don’t really know which party they would support. And, in response to a question about which leader will make the best prime minster, 39 per cent of Canadians answered “not sure.”