BlackRock sees ETF crunch even as assets hit $6.3 trillion

Even as BlackRock Inc.’s assets advanced to US$6.3 trillion and its growth appears unstoppable, there are signs the firm isn’t invincible.

Net flows for its global iShares exchange-traded funds declined 46 per cent in the first quarter to US$34.6 billion from a year earlier. Yet the world’s largest asset manager’s earnings beat estimates, which pushed the shares up as much as 3.1 per cent Thursday.

Choppy markets spurred traders to devote less cash to ETFs and some moved into lower-cost products. ETFs charging 0.2 per cent or less have accounted for 82 per cent of the industry ’s net flows this year, up from 77 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to research from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Laurence D. Fink, BlackRock’s chief executive, said investors moved money in the quarter because of a spike in market volatility and changes in U.S. tax law.

“The performance of ETFs validated the use of them,” Fink said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

Growth in BlackRock’s ETF business will likely be more subdued compared to the last several years. The money manager came to dominate the market as brokers poured cash into ETFs in anticipation of a rule requiring them to put clients’ interests ahead of their own when handling retirement investments.

“Sustaining growth at doubledigits in terms of asset flows will be really tough to do” for BlackRock, said Kyle Sanders, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co.

Still, analysts say that BlackRock’s ETFs held up well given the circumstances of the markets. Advisers continued to allocate money to the products.

“It shows that these passive structures are here to stay and people will buy them whether the market is good or bad,” said Sanders.

Fink said during the earnings call he expects ETFs to double in size over the next three to five years.

As BlackRock’s less expensive ETFs continue to capture most of the money, that could put pressure on revenue. In October 2016, the company reduced prices on 15 core ETFs aimed at price sensitive retail clients and financial advisers. The money manager is betting that it can offset any fee cuts with greater volume.

“I think that is why in the shortterm seeing money go to this lowcost stuff might be tough, but it sets them up better for the future,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.