A BRIEF PAUSE, IF HORGAN AVOIDS ESCALATION

British Columbians worried about Alberta’s tough petroleum export law, introduced Monday, can feel some momentary relief.

May 31 is now the informal trigger date for using the new powers to cut fuel exports to the Lower Mainland.

That would only happen if Kinder Morgan walks away from the Trans Mountain project, and Ottawa or B.C. haven’t reached a deal to take control.

Premier Rachel Notley is waiting to see if expected federal legislation, combined with the Kinder Morgan equity negotiations, brings a quick start to full pipeline construction.

But there’s a big “if ” for the next six weeks.

Alberta officials warn that if B.C. takes the smallest new hostile step against the project — some little regulation or an inventive court play — the taps would close at once.

“This is a very volatile file and things tend to happen,” says Cheryl Oates, Notley’s communications aide.

“If B.C. were to initiate hostile action that we hadn’t anticipated before that deadline, the law would be ready to go. And we would use it.”

B.C. Premier John Horgan would have to be demented to escalate further in these circumstances.

He went to Sunday’s Ottawa meeting with Notley and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offering no compromise plans or ideas, just his intractable opposition.

After failing to take any responsibility for a solution, new local obstructionism would make Horgan look terrible to much of the country, and highly dubious to British Columbians suddenly scrambling for fuel.

Notley made a telling point when she talked about the new bill, called the Preserving Canada’s Economic Prosperity Act.

She said there’s a shortage of pipeline capacity for diluted bitumen; that’s what the pipeline expansion is all about.

In order to ship more, the province might use Bill 12 to fill the current multi-product pipeline entirely with bitumen.

That would force gasoline and diesel fuel onto trucks and rail tank cars, thus increasing shipping time and cost, and lowering volume to B.C.

Or, if Notley got really annoyed, the Alberta government could halt all shipments of gasoline and diesel by rail or truck.

That would be extreme, but the power to do it is in this bill, which asserts export authority over all modes of transportation for natural gas, crude oil, heavy oil and refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel and aviation.

The law isn’t directional. It could eventually be used to limit shipments eastward or to the U.S. — although the latter, ironically, would be extremely unlikely.

Many energy companies will have to apply for export licences. Permits now held by natural gas exporters will roll into the new system. Companies will be told, if Bill 12 comes into play, how much they are allowed to ship. Or the government can order them to stop shipments entirely.

To make the point, companies can be fined $10 million a day for trying to get around the law. Individuals face a penalty of $1 million a day.

There won’t be any formal compensation system for lost sales or profits, but Oates says the government could consider requests case by case.

Asked if the companies are happy with all this, Notley said, “It’s fair to say they are a bit nervous about it.”

The industry was apoplectic in the spring of 1981 when PC Premier Peter Lougheed cut oil shipments to central Canada by 120,000 barrels a day, in stages.

A third planned cut of 60,000 barrels wasn’t needed because Ottawa rushed to the bargaining table and a deal was struck.

Lougheed realized, as Notley does today, that there are moments when the government has to act on behalf of the whole province.

This is one of them. And it’s every bit as dramatic and important as the 1980s crisis over Ottawa’s National Energy Program.

There’s now a bit of breathing space for B.C., but complacency would be extremely unwise.